Meme Coin Price Prediction: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE Monthly Support in Urgent Crisis

In the ongoing dumping wave in the Crypto Assets market, meme coins such as DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE have all been severely impacted. If the overall market sentiment worsens, they may face further fall risks. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the open interest (OI) of futures contracts for DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE decreased by 3%, 12%, and 9%, respectively.

The plummet of open contracts indicates a massive investor exodus

(Source: Coinglass)

Meme coins, especially during market pullback phases, often lead the decline due to their extreme volatility and being driven by speculative behavior. The decrease in open interest shown by CoinGlass data reveals the most critical risk signals in meme coin price predictions. The decline in open interest indicates a decrease in the notional value of all open futures contracts, suggesting that traders are avoiding risk and tending to stay on the sidelines.

The 12% decline in SHIB's open contract volume is the most severe among the three, indicating that investors' confidence in Shiba Inu is collapsing the fastest. A sharp decline in open contracts usually signifies two situations: profit-taking or forced liquidation. From the price trend, SHIB has fallen below the psychological barrier of $0.00001000, suggesting that a large number of long positions were forcibly closed, further exacerbating the selling pressure.

The 3% decline in DOGE's open contracts, although relatively mild, combined with its continuous four-day price drop, indicates that the bulls are retreating in an orderly manner rather than panicking. This “boiling frog” type of decline may be more dangerous, as it does not trigger an obvious oversold rebound but slowly wears down support strength. The 9% decline in PEPE's open contracts is at a medium level, indicating that the pressure it faces is between DOGE and SHIB.

From the perspective of meme coin price prediction, the continuous decline in open interest signifies a reduction in market participation and liquidity exhaustion. When open interest decreases, price volatility tends to intensify because market depth becomes shallower, and smaller sell orders can cause larger price impacts. In this environment, once panic selling occurs, the speed of the price drop may far exceed expectations.

DOGE faces a death cross, with $0.178 as the last line of defense

(Source: Trading View)

DOGE has struggled to hold above 0.18 USD after falling for four consecutive days. As of Friday's press time, the trading price of DOGE was above 0.18,000 USD, having previously dropped for four consecutive trading days. This pullback corresponds with the death cross pattern formed by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossing below the 200-day EMA. This indicates that the downward trend may become more pronounced in the short term.

The death cross is one of the most famous bearish signals in technical analysis. When the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, it indicates that the recent price trend has clearly weakened compared to the long-term trend, and the bullish momentum is waning. For DOGE, the timing of this death cross is particularly unfavorable, as it occurs when the price has already been falling consecutively and is approaching a key support level.

On Thursday, DOGE tested the support level of $0.17816 for the third time (the low on October 11), marking the third attempt this month. Multiple tests of the same support level typically weaken its defensive strength, as each test consumes buying power. If the closing price falls below this level, it may further drop to the low of $0.14270 on June 22. This would represent a decline of about 20% from the current price.

The momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart show low buying pressure, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reversing near the signal line, presenting a risk of a bearish crossover. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 39 between the midline and the oversold boundary, indicating a strengthening bearish trend. This overall deterioration in technicals puts DOGE at the greatest downside risk in meme coin price predictions.

If DOGE rebounds from 0.17819 USD, it may retest the level of 0.20869 USD, which is the low from August 19. However, given the current technical structure and market sentiment, the likelihood of a rebound is relatively low.

SHIB falls below psychological barrier, consolidation risk of collapse increases

(Source: Trading View)

Shiba Inu broke below the psychological barrier of 0.00001000 USD, posing a potential risk of consolidation collapse. After a 4% drop on Thursday, Shiba Inu stocks rebounded to near the psychological level of 0.00001000 USD on Friday. As of the time of publication, SHIB rose slightly by 1% on Friday, with bulls striving to reclaim this psychological level.

The meme coin bounced back near the low of $0.00000924 on October 17, but struggled to break through the S1 pivot point at $0.00000987. The pivot point is a key price level used in technical analysis to determine potential support and resistance levels. SHIB has attempted to break through the S1 pivot point multiple times but has failed, indicating strong resistance above.

After the Shiba Inu was dumped in the previous trading day, it is now facing new buying pressure today. The MACD indicator is close to the signal line and is expected to cross above it, showing new upward momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is exhibiting a V-shaped reversal around 42, having escaped the oversold zone. The improvement in these technical indicators provides the possibility of a short-term rebound for SHIB in meme coin price predictions.

SHIB Key Price Levels:

Current Price: Approximately 0.00001000 USD (psychological barrier)

Recent Resistance: 0.00001015 USD (50-period EMA) and 0.00001085 USD (200-period EMA)

Key Support: 0.00000924 USD (October 17 low)

Deep Support: 0.00000800 USD (psychological integer level)

If SHIB establishes an uptrend, it may encounter downward resistance at the 50-period and 200-period EMA at $0.00001015 and $0.00001085 respectively. However, breaking through these resistances requires significant volume and improvement in market sentiment, which is not easy to achieve under the current conditions.

PEPE monthly support faces collapse threat

(Source: Trading View)

With the selling pressure re-emerging, PEPE may fall below its monthly support level. As of Friday's press time, PEPE was up 2%, after four consecutive bearish candles appeared on its daily chart. This frog-themed meme coin is currently holding around the S2 pivot point of $0.00000645, which has remained stable since October 11 and has provided multiple support levels.

However, if the price closes below this level, there is a risk of a continued pullback with further downside. If this happens, PEPE could free-fall to $0.00000653 (the low on March 11), and then possibly drop to the S3 pivot point of $0.00000404. This means about a 37% drop from the current price to $0.00000404, which is not impossible for meme coins, as their volatility is much higher than that of mainstream coins.

The technical indicators on the daily chart show an increase in selling pressure, with the RSI indicator hovering above the oversold boundary at 36, while the MACD indicator and signal line have reversed, posing a risk of a bearish crossover. This overall deterioration in the technical aspects makes PEPE the most vulnerable asset among the three in meme coin price predictions.

If PEPE rebounds from $0.00000645, it may extend the recovery to the S1 pivot point at $0.00000788. However, this rebound requires an improvement in overall market sentiment and new buying pressure. In the current market structure, any rebound may become an opportunity for profit-taking rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.

Systematic Reasons for the Collective Pressure on Meme Coins

The three major meme coins are simultaneously facing critical monthly support, which is not a coincidence but reflects the common vulnerability of meme coins as an asset class. Firstly, meme coins lack intrinsic value support, and their prices are entirely driven by market sentiment and speculative demand. When the overall market shifts towards risk aversion, these purely speculative assets are the first to suffer.

Secondly, the holder structure of meme coins is primarily composed of retail investors, with very low institutional participation. Retail investors have a lower risk tolerance and are more likely to panic and exit the market during declines. This contrasts sharply with mainstream assets like Bitcoin, which have substantial institutional holdings providing price support.

Third, meme coins lack practical application scenarios. Although DOGE has been mentioned multiple times by Elon Musk, its actual payment applications are still limited. SHIB has launched Shibarium Layer-2, but the ecological development is slow. PEPE is purely a speculative target. When the market shifts towards value investing, these assets, which lack fundamental support, naturally face greater selling pressure.

The current market environment is extremely unfavorable for meme coin price predictions. Only when the overall sentiment in the encryption market significantly improves or when new meme narrative hotspots emerge, will these three major meme coins have the chance to break free from downward pressure.