Is the XRP fall below 3 dollars just temporary? 8 billion in funds and whales frantically buying reveal the rebound code.

On October 9, Ripple (XRP) continued to break below the psychological level of $3, currently reported at $2.84, losing the support of the 50-period EMA which triggered panic. However, with 11 XRP ETF applications set to be decided, whales sweeping up $1.1 billion in three days, and technical indicators showing a potential big pump of 85% with a break above $3.30, the three major structural indicators suggest that this pullback could be a golden buying opportunity. This article analyzes XRP price predictions and the ETF catalyst timeline.

XRP short-term under pressure: lost the key support at 3 USD

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(Source: Trading View)

After XRP broke through $3 on October 2, it struggled to maintain its upward momentum, falling to $2.84 on October 9. The daily close below this important psychological level not only signifies that XRP has lost the support of the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but also indicates a potential weakness in the short term.

However, multiple structural indicators and on-chain data suggest that XRP's current predicament may be temporary. The following three major catalysts are laying the groundwork for a potential recovery in the coming weeks.

Reason 1: XRP ETF approval imminent, $3-8 billion ready to go

(Source: CoinShares)

October could become a decisive month for XRP, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is about to face the deadline for 16 cryptocurrency ETF applications.

· ETF Approval Timeline and Fund Forecast

Key time nodes are concentrated from October 18 to October 25, during which multiple XRP spot ETF applications will reach their expiration decisions. The regulatory environment underwent significant changes in September 2025: the SEC approved new universal listing standards, greatly simplifying the approval process for commodity-based exchange-traded products.

Current status of ETF applications:

Total applications: 11 XRP ETF proposals

Through listing standards: A total of 11 have qualified.

The possibility of simultaneous approval: very high

Estimated capital inflow: 3 billion to 8 billion USD (benchmarking against the early stages of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs)

· Institutional funds have begun to layout

CoinShares data reinforces this optimistic sentiment, showing that XRP investment products attracted $220 million in inflows last week, bringing the year-to-date inflows to $1.8 billion, with assets under management reaching $3.2 billion.

Reason 2: Whales Frenziedly Scooped Up 1.1 Billion USD in Three Days, Retail Investors Panic Becomes a Buying Point

(Source: Glassnode)

Market sentiment and capital flows show a clear divergence, which is usually a reversal signal.

· Retail investors fall into panic

According to Coinphoton data, the bullish/bearish sentiment ratio for XRP has fallen below 1.0, indicating that the number of negative comments on social media platforms now exceeds positive comments. Historically, periods of "fear, uncertainty, and doubt" (FUD) among retail investors often precede strong rebounds, as capitulation typically marks the bottom of the market.

· Whale is significantly increasing holdings against the trend

Against this backdrop, large investors are seizing this weak opportunity:

Cumulative over the last three days: 55 million XRP

Total accumulated value: nearly 1.1 billion USD

Position change trend: Since August, the net holder's position change has remained positive.

Glassnode on-chain data shows that XRP continues to accumulate around the 3 dollar level. Institutions and whales have not retreated due to the price pullback, but rather see it as a good opportunity to add positions.

· Whale behavior patterns:

Retail investors panic sell → Whales accumulate大量

Bearish sentiment ratio < 1.0 → Historically a bottom signal

On-chain net inflows continue to be positive→ supply side tightens

Reason 3: The technical aspect maintains a bull market structure, breaking through the $3.30 target to $5

(Source: Trading View)

Despite short-term consolidation, the price structure of XRP remains historically strong.

· Long-term structural breakthrough

Currently, XRP is maintaining its highest weekly and monthly closing prices since breaking its all-time high in 2017. This shows that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains intact.

Cryptocurrency analyst EtherNasyonal pointed out that the seven-and-a-half-year descending channel of XRP relative to Bitcoin will be broken at the end of 2024, marking a significant structural shift, and has been continuously accumulating over the past year.

Bull Market Fractal Model: 60-85% Pump Expected

! XRP fractal model

(Source: Trading View)

Traders identify the current pattern resembling a historical bull fractal:

Breakthrough Scenario:

Key breakout price: 3.30 USD

Target pump range: 60% to 85%

Corresponding price: 4.80 USD to 5.28 USD

Trader Dentoshi also observed a similar pattern and inferred that long-term consolidation or bottoming could lead to a larger-scale breakout.

Risk Warning: Key support line at 2.65 USD

(Source: X)

Renowned trader Peter Brandt presents a contrarian view, pointing out that the daily closing price of XRP falling below $2.65 could be a decisive point. This would confirm a descending triangle pattern, with a target price potentially dropping to $2.22.

Brandt stated, "If the closing price is below $2.68743 (then I will become a hater), it should fall to $2.22163."

Key price range:

Bullish support line: 2.65-3.00 USD

Breakthrough confirmation point: 3.30 USD

Bull market target zone: 4.80-5.28 USD

Bearish breakdown price: 2.22 USD