Bitcoin is repeating the 2017 cycle – could it reach 200,000 dollars?

The price movement of Bitcoin in Q3 2025 and the recent bearish phase clearly reflects the cyclical structure of 2017. Throughout the summer, Bitcoin fluctuated within an accumulation range from 100,000 USD to 115,000 USD, forming a solid technical platform at 107,000 USD, while market momentum reflected the adjustments and bounce back seen in 2017.

Bitcoin has maintained its position above key support levels, with price action frequently testing the levels defined by historical cycles. Alternative cycle analyses indicate a projected growth scenario in Q4, with cycle correlations exceeding 90% as the price enters the final phase of historical market structure.

The context of 2025 is significantly different from 2017

However, the market context in 2025 is significantly different from that in 2017, due to the influx of capital from spot ETF funds, public company treasuries, and regulatory adjustments following global changes in the banking and macroeconomic sectors.

The trading volume on the exchange, the net capital flow of ETFs, and liquidity in USD have together formed a cycle change, differing from previous cycles predominantly driven by retail sell orders.

As the cyclical classes suggest, Bitcoin's path towards the projected price channel of 200,000 USD depends on maintaining technical support and stimulating new capital flow.

From a technical perspective, the weekly MACD trend and daily RSI reflect a neutral to slightly positive stance. Accumulation below 115,000 USD aligns with previous market bottoms, while the weakening RSI and modest MACD crossovers indicate a shift in speculative positions as open interest stabilizes through mid-September.

Volatility has increased as the market adjusts, but the market structure remains intact, with prices bouncing back multiple times from the 107,000 USD level. The bullish potential is still tied to breaking the resistance level of 115,000 USD, as the technical pattern aligns with multi-cycle fractal layers from 2015-2017 and 2021-2025.

Comparing bull markets | Source: DecenTraderHowever, unlike in 2017, institutional momentum and global monetary policy developments are shaping the market structure as Q4 approaches. Macroeconomic tracking sources note that the strength of the dollar persists, changes in the policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed), and global demand for assets with maturity dates continue to influence the direction of spot prices.

Along with the decline in the ETF product line creating temporary pressure, it adds nuance to the cycle analyses. Risks still exist, as observed in the case where 107,000 USD could not hold support, leading to widespread deleveraging and the possibility of prices slipping below the technical platform, which will prompt the adjustment of long and short positions on major exchanges.

How Bitcoin Could Repeat the Price Surge of 2017

Future predictions modeled by price cycle researchers provide bullish channels based on fractal repetition and layers of market structure. If the price maintains closing action above 115,000 USD in the early stage of Q4, a parabolic surge may occur.

When historical correlations still exist, technical patterns indicate a phase of explosion similar to 2017. Real-time price models and cycle layers suggest that there is a possibility of further price expansion beyond previous cycle peaks if macro conditions and capital flows remain stable.

The turning point regions of the operating cycle act as catalysts sustaining the upward trend, but caution is needed as prolonged macro volatility and policy interventions may readjust the projected path.

Bitcoin 2017 compared to Bitcoin 2025 | Source: AlΞx WacyThe current structure observed over multiple years shows continuous alignment with the historical rhythm of the market, laying the foundation for each model. Bitcoin's price action follows a familiar rhythm, positioning the asset for a potential cycle expansion into new highs if the aforementioned conditions are maintained.

If the current technical and macro conditions continue, predictions indicate that Bitcoin is still poised to track the upper boundaries of its historical cycle, with the opportunity to extend the cycle beyond previous peaks if the capital flow maintains through ETF funds and institutional treasuries.

The price action in the spot market will determine whether the red line scenario occurs or not. If the technical factors, policies, and liquidity continue to support, the continuation of the cycle surpassing previous limits remains a feasible possibility, closing the quarter with Bitcoin once again positioned at the center of the global financial conversation.

Mr. Giáo