Terra founder Do Kwon may reach a plea agreement with U.S. prosecutors regarding the UST collapse case, putting pressure on the technical aspects of LUNA/LUNC.

According to Bloomberg on August 11, citing sources, Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon is in plea deal negotiations regarding U.S. criminal charges related to the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in 2022, which led to $40 billion in market capitalization evaporating. If an agreement is reached, it will mark a key turning point in this significant legal dispute that has lasted for more than two years. Currently, Kwon has been extradited from Montenegro to the U.S. and is facing allegations of fraud concerning the algorithmic stablecoin UST and securities violations. Due to this news and ongoing legal risks, the prices of LUNA and TUNC tokens continue to be under pressure, with the technical aspect showing a critical struggle for support levels.

[Plea negotiations begin: UST crash case may face a major turning point] Sources revealed to Bloomberg that U.S. prosecutors are discussing a possible plea deal with Do Kwon’s legal team, although specific terms have not yet been finalized. If this move proceeds, it will become a key milestone in the legal process following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.

• Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 for allegedly using forged travel documents and was later extradited to the United States for detention.
• The charges he faces are mainly related to the collapse of the Algorithmic Stablecoin TerraUSD (UST), an event that triggered a widespread sell-off in the cryptocurrency market in May 2022, resulting in $40 billion in market capitalization evaporating.
• Although Terraform Labs filed for bankruptcy in January 2024 and denied any wrongdoing, legal pressure on Kwon personally continues to mount, with authorities in both the U.S. and South Korea advancing parallel criminal investigations. It is worth noting that reaching a plea agreement with the United States does not necessarily resolve the charges against him in South Korea, but it could expedite the judicial process within the U.S.

【Token Technical Pressure: LUNA/LUNC Key Level Struggle】

The ongoing legal and regulatory clouds severely suppress investor sentiment, leading to continued pressure on the prices of LUNA (Terra 2.0) and LUNC (Terra Classic) tokens, trading near key technical levels.

• LUNA Technical Analysis ($0.1602):
  • The current price is slightly above the 20-day moving average ($0.1612), but below the Bollinger Band upper resistance level ($0.1761).
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) reports 44.75, indicating neutral momentum.
  • The price fluctuated in the range of $0.148 - $0.169 over the past week.
  • Despite a 39.50% increase in 24-hour trading volume, Open Interest decreased by 6.16%, indicating that leveraged traders remain cautious.
  • Key Levels: If it continues to break through $0.169, the targets can be $0.176 and $0.190; if it loses the $0.158 support level, it may drop to $0.148.
• LUNC Technical Analysis ($0.00006116):
  • The price is slightly below the Bollinger Band upper resistance ($0.00006464), close to the 20-day moving average ($0.00006060).
  • RSI is at 46.37, indicating a slight rebound from the oversold area.
  • The 7-day volatility range is $0.00005686 - $0.00006417.
• 24-hour spot trading volume increased by 3.20%, derivative trading volume rose by 17.18%, but open interest decreased by 3.62%.

  • Key level: If it can break through $0.00006417, it is expected to test $0.00007000; if it encounters resistance and falls back, it may return to the $0.00005700 area.

    

    (Source: TradingView)

[Conclusion: Legal risks persist, and the road to the revival of the Terra ecosystem is long] Do Kwon’s possible plea agreement negotiations represent a significant development in the legal accountability process following the UST crash. If reached, it would conclude his judicial disputes in the United States, but it would not eliminate the legal risks he faces in South Korea or the civil compensation sought by investors. This case highlights the stringent scrutiny of global regulators regarding the compliance of crypto projects, especially Algorithmic Stablecoins. For LUNA and LUNC holders, the ongoing legal uncertainty remains a core factor suppressing price recovery. Technical analysis shows that both bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war at critical levels, and the short-term direction will need to closely monitor the progress of the plea agreement and changes in market sentiment. Regardless of the legal outcomes, the Terra incident, as one of the most significant crash cases in crypto history, will continue to influence industry regulation and investor risk perception.