BTC and ETH: today an overly calm day

Today in the crypto markets it seems like a calm day, particularly regarding the price of BTC and ETH, but appearances can be deceiving

In fact, although there are no particularly significant movements being recorded, the medium-short term trend does not seem particularly solid

There are indeed underlying dynamics, but external to the crypto markets, capable of changing the situation from one moment to the next

BTC and ETH: the calm before the storm?

Today the price level of Bitcoin is stable.

Yesterday, however, there was an attempt at correction, with a fairly quick move from about $115,000 to less than $113,000, but within a few hours it was then completely absorbed

This dynamic reveals that there are bear pressures at play, but they are not strong enough to trigger a full-fledged correction

At the base of this resilience, there is most likely the selling pressure of BTC on crypto exchanges, which remains really very low, very close to the lows of the current cycle.

To tell the truth, at the beginning of the month there was a timid increase in selling pressure, but in the following days it remained relatively stable, although still slightly on the rise

The fact is that the buying pressure is not decreasing, so there are no conditions for a significant price drop, at least so far

However, external dynamics to the crypto market, but fundamental, could increase the selling pressure more significantly, or reduce the buying pressure, and this should cause the price to fall, should it happen.

The trend of the price of ETH

The trend of the price of Ethereum is very similar, but with a difference.

In fact, yesterday the drop was smaller, with a quick transition from just over $3,700 to less than $3,600

The thing is curious, because just the day before there had been one of the largest daily outflows from ETF su ETH spot, exceeding 465 million dollars.

Yesterday, on the other hand, there was a net inflow of 73 million, probably following an excessive outflow the day before, and it is possible that the reason why yesterday ETH held up slightly better than BTC during the correction attempt could be due to this.

What is surprising, however, is that on Monday the price of Ethereum (ETH) held up so well during a day of record outflows from ETFs, considering that on August 4th its price rose from $3,500 to $3,650.

It should not be forgotten that the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin is still very low

Just think that at the beginning of the year it was 0.036 BTC, while now it is still below 0.032 BTC, although it was also below 0.019 BTC in April

Furthermore, the rise in recent months occurred in two steps, the first in May with a rise above 0.024 BTC, and the second in July, with a rise above 0.032 BTC, both not followed by a correction

In other terms, Ethereum is also showing signs of strength in the bull and bear markets

The macro conditions

Much of the future evolution, even in the short term, depends on what will happen at the macro level

At this moment, it is the dollar that sets the line. The problem is that the trend of the Dollar Index at this moment does not seem to have a clear direction, due to the considerable uncertainty that pervades the markets at this moment

In fact, the possible rate cut in September has now been priced in by the markets, as at this point they consider it very likely

What has not yet been priced in, for example, is the data related to inflation in the USA in July, which will be announced only next week

For now, the hypothesis circulating is that core inflation might have risen from 2.9% in June to 3% in July. If that were the case, it would be the second consecutive monthly increase, even if only by 0.1 percentage points

Note that in February it was at 3.1%, but in March, before the tariffs came into effect, it had fallen to 2.8%

The problem is that rising inflation reduces the chances that the Fed can cut rates, but since the U.S. labor market seems to have entered a moment of slight distress, at least for September a minimal cut is expected

The trade policy of Trump’s tariffs is currently probably the element that can most significantly impact the financial markets, in the short and perhaps medium term, and also the trend of BTC and ETH prices could be affected by it