Trade risks continue to rise UBS raised its gold target to $3,200

On March 17, UBS Group AG became the latest investment bank to raise its gold price forecast, as the likelihood of a protracted global trade war increased. Analysts expect this situation to continue to push investors to buy more gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset. Gold is set to trade at $3,200 an ounce over the next four quarters, up from the bank’s previous long-held forecast of $3,000 an ounce, as the escalating trade conflict highlights gold’s role as a store of value in uncertain times, analysts including Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo said in a note on Monday. The bank noted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2 is a looming risk event that could spur continued safe-haven demand across the market. At the same time, gold prices will also benefit from the deteriorating outlook for the US economy, with traders now expecting further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as recession fears intensify. “In other words, we’re seeing a shift from ‘Trump puts’ to ‘Fed puts,’” analysts said. “We continue to believe that an allocation of around 5% of a dollar-balanced portfolio to gold is the best option from a long-term diversification perspective.”