Societe Generale: Expects the Bank of England to maintain the Interest Rate unchanged with a voting ratio of 7:2

Jin Shi data, September 19 news, Natixis Bank analysis said that in August, the Bank of England voted in favor of a rate cut with a slight advantage, and some members who voted in favor of a rate cut described the decision as “very balanced,” which means that the MPC will proceed with caution. The data since the August meeting has been moving in the right direction, but it is still too high and unsettling. Therefore, most members may not have enough confidence to cut rates again at the September meeting, and the voting ratio may be 7:2. It is currently unclear how the new member, Ellen Taylor, will vote in place of the hawkish member Haskell. The MPC will also vote on the upcoming QT pace. Recent reports show that the Bank of England is unwilling to change its current approach, so it is expected to further reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds. The next rate cut is expected to occur in November, as further accumulation of weak data should strengthen the MPC’s confidence, and the risk of inflation returning to the 2% target has further dropped. After that, it is expected that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points per quarter to 2.5%.