Polymarket官方人员：“1分钟涨跌”预测事件与POLY空投为下一阶段计划

Polymarket Iran Missile Prediction Sparks Journalist Death Threats, Platform Bans Account Reporting Incident

Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket blocked multiple bettors after users issued death threats against journalist Fabian, stemming from a report on Iranian missile strikes. The threatened journalist stated that individuals attempted to pressure for modifications to the reporting to influence betting outcomes. The incident sparked discussions on prediction market regulation, highlighting potential threats to press independence and professional ethics.

Claude AI 自動套利預測市場，交易員聲稱獲利數百萬美元

Cryptocurrency traders leverage Claude AI to build automated trading bots, with the key advantage being the ability to execute arbitrage trades through rapid analysis of news and market data. These bots, leveraging high-frequency execution capabilities, capture price discrepancies across different prediction markets. However, the profit potential is limited by factors such as data quality and market efficiency. As AI technology develops, the arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets may continue to shrink.

Kalshi 推出 NCAA 三月瘋完美預測挑戰，全對抱走 10 億美元獎金

NCAA March Madness 是一項受歡迎的籃球賽事，每年吸引大量球迷參與預測遊戲。預測平台 Kalshi 推出完美預測挑戰，成功預測全部 63 場比賽可獲得 10 億美元獎金，競爭非常激烈，成功機率低至 9.2 京分之一。此活動將於 2026 年正式開展，受到廣泛關注。

Polymarket 上"特朗普 3 月 31 日前访华"概率今晨跌至 4%，24 小时跌幅 36%

3月17日，Polymarket上关于特朗普访华的事件概率急剧下降，"3月31日前访华"的概率降至4%，而"4月30日前访华"的概率为34%。外交部表示中美双方仍在就访问事宜沟通。

Polymarket"以色列 3 月 31 日前袭击也门"预测概率跌至 25%，周跌 29%

Polymarket预测市场数据显示，以色列将在3月31日前对也门发动袭击的概率降至25%，交易量接近25万美元。胡塞武装威胁发起攻击，影响红海航运，以色列则在筹划军事布局，但尚未出现大规模空袭。