Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech tonight on the "Economic Outlook and Framework Review". After the rate cut in September, what will be the Fed's next move?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" tonight (23) at 00:35 in Rhode Island, focusing on the current economic situation in the United States, inflation dynamics, and the monetary policy framework. Wall Street and global investors are currently highly anticipating that Powell will provide more clues about the future path of monetary policy, particularly whether the FOMC meeting in October will continue to cut rates and how much the rate cuts for the entire year of 2025 might reach. (Background: Two major Federal Reserve officials have turned hawkish! Bostic says "no more rate cuts this year," Musalem: If the labor market is not weak, don't expect further easing) (Background: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting, Powell stated that "tariff impact is limited," and Bitcoin broke through 117,300) The Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially restarted rate cuts as expected by the market, announcing a reduction of the federal benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, in line with general market expectations. Just at Taiwan time tonight (23) at 00:35, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" in Rhode Island, focusing on the current economic situation in the United States, inflation dynamics, and the monetary policy framework. This is Powell's first public speech since the Federal Reserve restarted rate cuts, and Wall Street and global investors are highly anticipating that he will provide more clues about the future path of monetary policy, particularly whether the FOMC meeting in October will continue to cut rates and how much the rate cuts for the entire year of 2025 might reach. Significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve After last week's FOMC meeting, Powell stated that this rate cut is a "risk management cut", aimed at preventing further deterioration of the labor market while ensuring inflation stabilizes back to the 2% target. He specifically mentioned that the tariff policies recently implemented by the Trump administration could temporarily raise inflation, but the Federal Reserve expects their impact on long-term inflation expectations to be limited. Powell emphasized that future decisions by the Federal Reserve will be highly "data-dependent", such as the PCE inflation data scheduled to be released this Friday (September 26). It is worth noting that although the Federal Reserve successfully implemented rate cuts, there are still significant differences among internal members regarding the subsequent rate cut path. Dovish representatives like the newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Miran (Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump) advocate for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that the risks in the labor market are underestimated and that easing policies should be accelerated to avoid economic recession. Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee (Austan Goolsbee) also supports consecutive rate cuts, predicting that rates could drop to 3.5% or lower by 2025. In contrast, hawkish representatives, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic (Raphael Bostic) and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musalem (Alberto Musalem) both turned hawkish yesterday (22), both believing that a cautious attitude should be taken regarding whether the Fed should cut rates further, even considering pausing rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's dot plot reveals policy outlook However, according to the economic forecast dot plot (SEP) released after the September 17 FOMC meeting, overall, Federal Reserve officials expect the median federal benchmark interest rate to be 3.9% by the end of 2025, implying a possibility of 50 basis points of rate cuts (i.e., two 25 basis point cuts) for the whole year. The median interest rate forecast for 2026 is 3.1%, indicating a further cut of 75 basis points. Among them, the dot plot shows that 10 out of 19 officials expect the rate to be below 3.9% in 2025, reflecting a slight advantage for the dovish view. Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently believes that the Fed is still likely to cut rates in October, reaching a probability of 89.8%. Market impact and outlook Analysts expect that Powell's speech tonight may trigger market fluctuations. If his remarks are dovish, suggesting continued rate cuts in October or subsequent meetings, both the crypto and stock markets may see a surge in momentum. Conversely, if Powell emphasizes inflation risks and downplays rate cut expectations, the market may be influenced by risk-averse sentiment, shifting towards investments in gold and U.S. Treasuries. Extended reading: Bitcoin falls below $113,000 "Get Liquidated $1.6 billion", buddy brother suffers a loss of $18 million on long orders Related reports: With the rate cut cycle beginning, can stablecoin management still achieve a 10% annualized return? Rate cuts catalyze the final phase of the Bitcoin bull run: Will BTC crash again next year? The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting, Powell stated that "tariff impact is limited," and Bitcoin broke through 117,300. This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential Blockchain news media.