Glassnode: Is the Metaverse doomed? on-chain data tells you the answer.

Source: Glassnode; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduced another exploration targeting CBD use cases - analyzing metaverse tokens. Although prices have dropped and hype is gradually fading, on-chain data indicates that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and lowering their cost basis.

Does this indicate a long-term bet on the revival of the metaverse? Let's first review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, and then apply this knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding the Cost Basis Distribution

Cost basis distribution (CBD) tracks the position of the token supply based on the average cost basis of holders. By analyzing changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior — whether they are accumulating, selling, or reallocating their holdings.

How to interpret the CBD heatmap:

• Color Intensity (Supply Distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate a high concentration of supply within the given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate a lower supply volume.

• Vertical Axis (Cost Basis)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range of the last movement of a portion of the supply, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us identify potential market turning points, where accumulation or distribution trends may indicate future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveals

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens - The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS) - which were among the most prominent assets during the metaverse boom of 2021. While the hype around virtual worlds has faded, our focus shifts from user activity to examining investor behavior using cost basis distribution (CBD) data.

We are not assessing adoption metrics or in-game activities, but rather analyzing how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling off, maintaining stability, or accumulating at lower prices? By tracking changes in supply at different price levels, we can gain insights into how investor sentiment evolves during the post-hype phase and whether accumulation trends suggest long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite price fluctuations, on-chain data shows that accumulation is still continuing. Holders with strong conviction are steadily increasing their positions, reinforcing their confidence in the project's long-term potential.

Decentraland (MANA): Buy on dips

The concentration of supply has significantly increased, reaching around $0.60, reflecting an increase in buying activity after the price drop. This indicates that investors see the price drop as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of further decline.

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong.

Despite the ongoing downward trend, on-chain data shows that a large number of positions are gradually increasing. This pattern indicates that some investors remain confident in the future of Axie Infinity.

Will the metaverse revive?

Speculative hype around the metaverse may have faded, but on-chain activity indicates otherwise. The continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens suggests that many investors view these projects as undervalued opportunities, rather than failures.

Does this lay the foundation for a future recovery? Although the price trend remains uncertain, the data shows that the confidence of major market participants is still strong—they are positioning themselves accordingly.