PANews reported on September 6 that crypto analyst PlanC stated on the X platform that anyone who believes Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability, because from a statistical and probabilistic perspective, this is equivalent to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting all the money that the fourth flip will definitely be tails. However, relying on the previous three Halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.
Today, with the rise of Bitcoin funding companies and a large influx of capital into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the Halving cycle is no longer related to Bitcoin. Aside from psychological self-fulfilling prophecies, there are no fundamental reasons to explain why Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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Analyst: Bitcoin no longer relies on the Halving cycle, those predicting a price peak in Q4 may misunderstand the probabilities.
PANews reported on September 6 that crypto analyst PlanC stated on the X platform that anyone who believes Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability, because from a statistical and probabilistic perspective, this is equivalent to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting all the money that the fourth flip will definitely be tails. However, relying on the previous three Halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data. Today, with the rise of Bitcoin funding companies and a large influx of capital into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the Halving cycle is no longer related to Bitcoin. Aside from psychological self-fulfilling prophecies, there are no fundamental reasons to explain why Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.