Bitcoin open interest exceeds $70 billion, setting a new record. Historical patterns suggest a potential pullback?

The open interest positions of Bitcoin (BTC) have once again rapidly risen, with its price continuously hitting new historical highs. The price of Bitcoin has maintained above $100,000 for some time now, and market confidence has rebounded, believing that Bitcoin has found its bottom. This has led cryptocurrency traders to increase their positions, driving the rise in open interest back to the peak levels of December 2024 and May 2025.

Bitcoin Open Interest Breaks Through 70 Billion USD Again

In December 2024, Bitcoin's open contracts reached a new milestone, with the contract volume rising to $70 billion, marking a historical high at that time. The price of Bitcoin also surged significantly, breaking the $100,000 barrier for the first time, further stimulating market interest in this asset.

However, after the price and open contracts reached these milestones, market shorts began to gradually take over. The price of Bitcoin quickly fell back below $100,000, and in the following months, open contracts dropped to $40 billion, resulting in a 40% loss in open contracts by May 2025.

Currently, Bitcoin's open contracts have once again surpassed $70 billion, approaching the $77 billion peak in May 2025, according to data. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin has also successfully maintained above $100,000, setting a new historical high of over $118,000. Based on historical performance, the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise, but there may be bearish risks after breaking new highs.

Bitcoin price may face a risk of correction

As the number of outstanding Bitcoin contracts continues to rise and prices break new highs, market expectations for a correction are gradually increasing. Crypto analyst FriendlyRox predicts that the price of Bitcoin could plummet by 50%, with a target price potentially dropping to $60,000. Crypto analyst Capo also expresses concerns about the market, forecasting a significant correction for Bitcoin, with prices falling below $100,000, which could lead to a substantial drop in altcoins during this process. As institutional investors continue to pour into the crypto market, Bitcoin has become the leader, and Capo predicts that a large-scale "black swan" event similar to that during the COVID pandemic may occur.

Market Sentiment: The Possibility of Bearish Return

Historically, after Bitcoin's price breaks a new high, it often experiences a pullback. As open contracts continue to grow, short positions accumulate, and market sentiment diverges. Although Bitcoin may continue to rise in the short term, if a trend similar to that of December 2024 occurs, then after reaching a new high, Bitcoin may undergo a anticipated correction.

Conclusion: Cautious Market Outlook

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has broken new highs, and the number of open contracts has also seen rapid growth, with a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market. However, with the accumulation of short positions, the risk of a price correction cannot be ignored. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics, especially whether Bitcoin can maintain its current high level or if it will face a correction as seen in many historical instances after breaking new highs.