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As the first meme coin in the <a href="/ja/price/solana-sol" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Solana</a> ecosystem, BONK has continued to attract market attention since its launch at the end of 2022. Despite a drop of over 80% from its high point in early 2023, BONK remains one of the most controversial targets in the cryptocurrency field, thanks to <a href="/ja/price/solana-sol" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Solana</a>'s technological revival and community cultural penetration. This article will analyze the price potential of BONK in 2025 from four dimensions: ecological positioning, market cycle, technical indicators, and competitive landscape.

## Project positioning: Solana ecosystem's "community coin experiment"

BONK was born in the trough of the Solana ecosystem (December 2022), with its core narrative being "activating user participation through airdrops to reshape Solana's decentralized culture." The project team airdropped 50% of the total token supply to developers, artists, and ordinary users, quickly accumulating over 400,000 holding addresses. This aggressive community distribution model has made it the "social currency" of the Solana ecosystem - with over 200 projects accepting BONK payments, including in-app purchases in the Solana mobile game Saga, ranging from NFT trading to DeFi protocols.

By 2024, BONK has surpassed Dogwifhat (WIF) to become the meme token with the highest on-chain trading volume on the Solana network, with daily on-chain active addresses stabilizing at over 50,000. If the Solana ecosystem continues to expand, especially in consumer-level application scenarios, the practical value of BONK as a 'cultural symbol' may be further magnified.

## Market Cycle: The rotation law of Meme coins and the halving effect of Bitcoin

Historical data shows that the market of meme coin often lags behind the bull market of mainstream coins. For example:

- 2021 Bull Market: DOGE skyrocketed by 400% after <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> broke $60,000, while SHIB peaked two months before the market top;
- <a href="/ja/explore/bitcoin-halving-countdown" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin halving</a> in 2024: If a new cycle starts, funds may spread to high-risk assets in 2025, driving the rotation of meme coin sector.

The current circulating market value of BONK is only 940 million US dollars, which is still significantly lower than DOGE (23 billion US dollars) and SHIB (7 billion US dollars). If market sentiment shifts, there is a possibility of its market value impacting 5-10 billion US dollars, corresponding to a price range of 0.00006-0.00012 US dollars (a 5-10x increase from the current price).

## On-chain Data: Coin Concentration and Chip Distribution Analysis

Despite BONK's emphasis on decentralization, on-chain data reveals potential risks:

- Whale control: The top 10 addresses hold 28% of the circulating tokens, posing a potential price manipulation risk;
- Inflation pressure: The current circulation is 7.85 trillion coins, accounting for 88% of the total supply. The remaining tokens will be gradually released by 2025, which may suppress the potential for price increases.

However, the BONK community governance recently passed a proposal to allocate a portion of the transaction fees to token burning. If the annual burn rate can reach 3%-5%, it may help alleviate inflation issues and provide support for the price.

## Competitive Landscape: Dual Challenges Inside and Outside the Solana Ecosystem

BONK faces competition from multiple parties:

1. Internal ecosystem: Emerging Meme coins such as WIF and POPCAT compete for user attention through more aggressive marketing;
2. Cross-chain opponents: BRETT of Base chain, NOT of Ton chain, and other meme tokens are quickly rising with the support of new public chain traffic;

But BONK has the "first-mover advantage" - its deeply integrated ecosystem applications (such as the BonkBot trading robot processing 200,000 transactions per day on average) constitute a competitive barrier. If Solana makes breakthroughs in the payment and gaming sectors, BONK may become a medium of value circulation within the ecosystem.

## Price prediction model: Scenario analysis for 2025

Based on the above variables, we construct three possible price paths:

Scenario 1: Bear market continues (20% probability)
- If <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> falls below $50,000 and trades sideways for a long time, market risk appetite decreases, BONK may drop to $0.000003-0.000005, market cap shrinking to 200-300 million dollars.

Scenario 2: Mild Recovery (50% probability)
- Assuming the Solana ecosystem TVL grows to $10 billion, BONK captures 1% of the ecosystem value, corresponding to a market value of approximately $1 billion, with the price fluctuating in the range of 0.000012-0.000015 USD.

Scenario 3: Bull Market Frenzy (30% probability)
- If Bitcoin breaks through $150,000 and Solana becomes the "<a href="/ja/web3" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Web3</a> Android system", BONK may replicate the trend of SHIB in 2021, surging to $0.00005-0.0001, with a market value reaching $40-80 billion.

## Conclusion: Speculation and ecological game under high volatility

BONK's 2025 [Price trend](/price-prediction) Will depend on two core factors:

1. Can the Solana ecosystem incubate applications with tens of millions of users and create real demand for BONK;
2. Is the market entering another "Meme frenzy cycle," driving capital towards high-risk assets.

For investors, BONK is more suitable as an "ecological Beta" allocation rather than a long-term value storage target. It is recommended to closely monitor the Solana developer activity index, token burning data, and CEX listing dynamics, and use the fluctuation range for swing trading.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author: **Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investment involves risks and users need to make careful decisions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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BONK Coin Price Prediction for 2025