Realokasi Modal Global: Investor Institusional Menilai Kembali Pasar Amerika di Bawah Gelombang Pendanaan Anthropic

Global financial markets are undergoing a new round of structural adjustments. From the race for AI funding, to weak signals in traditional economic indicators, and to institutional investors reassessing their US market exposure, these seemingly disparate events actually reflect the same core theme — as the global economic landscape becomes turbulent, capital is engaging in new risk pricing and asset allocation.

AI Funding Race: Anthropic’s $30 Billion Financing Breaks Records, OpenAI Faces Market Pressure

The recent surge in AI industry funding has reached new heights. According to the latest disclosures, Anthropic has completed a $30 billion financing deal, with post-money valuation rising to $380 billion, making it one of the highest-valued private companies globally.

This round was led by the Singapore government investment firm and Coatue Management, with participation from well-known investors such as D.E. Shaw & Co., Dragoneer Investment Group, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Iconiq, and MGX. Additionally, tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft joined in. In contrast, OpenAI, once seen as the “kingmaker” in AI, has been relatively low-profile. Although it is seeking funding, its scale and market attention have been impacted by emerging players like Anthropic.

The expansion of Anthropic’s valuation, roughly doubling from previous levels, not only reflects investor confidence in this startup’s competitiveness but also indicates that, amid reshaping AI competition, capital is accelerating flow into those considered “alternative” innovative forces. Analysts suggest that with the launch of tools from Alphabet, Anthropic, and startups like Altruist, the entire software and financial services sectors could face disruption.

Mixed Signals from US Economy: Managers Reassess Risks

Contrasting with the AI funding frenzy, traditional US economic indicators are showing signs of weakness. In January, the US existing home sales experienced historic lows and were hit by widespread winter storms, with sales dropping to the largest decline in nearly four years. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), January existing home sales fell 8.4% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, well below economists’ median forecasts. Sales in the South declined even more sharply, down 9% to an annualized rate of 1.81 million units.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated that the unseasonably cold weather and above-normal precipitation in January make it difficult to determine the fundamental reasons for the decline, but the data still reflect structural challenges in the US housing market.

These economic signals are prompting global institutional investors to reconsider their US market allocations. Martin Præstegaard, CEO of Denmark’s second-largest pension fund ATP, recently said the fund is “conducting a comprehensive review of the US political system” and may need to reduce exposure to US private markets. With assets under management of $112 billion, the firm is re-evaluating potential US investment risks.

Præstegaard admitted that the US “has performed very well over the years,” but the key question is “whether that can continue.” As of the end of December, ATP’s private assets totaled about 113 billion kroner (roughly $18 billion), with a high allocation to US assets, including unlisted equities, real estate, and infrastructure. While ATP’s withdrawal from US markets will be gradual, this shift in attitude is significant — top global institutional investors are beginning to approach the US market, once seen as a “sure thing,” with caution.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise and Capital Hedging: A New Round of Market Play

Against this backdrop of market adjustment, hedge fund manager David Einhorn’s latest moves offer another perspective. Co-founder of Greenlight Capital, Einhorn announced he has bought SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) futures, betting that under new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, rate cuts will “far exceed” market expectations.

Einhorn said, “One of the best trades right now is betting that this year’s rate cuts will surpass expectations,” predicting that by year-end, the number of rate cuts will be much higher than the market’s current forecast of two cuts of 0.25 percentage points each.

This optimistic outlook on rate cuts partly reflects market participants’ concerns about economic slowdown risks, and also indicates that, amid rising global economic uncertainty, capital is engaging in various risk hedging and return optimization strategies.

Further Geopolitical Risks and Political Developments

Beyond economic data and market adjustments, geopolitical risks are also intensifying. US President Donald Trump stated he expects negotiations with Iran could last up to a month. When asked by reporters, Trump said, “I guess it will be in the next month or so,” emphasizing that “it should happen soon,” and warned that if no agreement is reached, Iran will face “very painful” consequences.

This indicates that the Trump administration is accelerating diplomatic negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. However, the complex global geopolitical situation means that any major negotiations could trigger chain reactions affecting energy prices, risk asset valuations, and more.

Market Outlook and Investment Insights

Considering these signals, global capital is undergoing a reallocation. On one hand, the booming AI funding scene contrasts with OpenAI’s relative low profile, indicating a shift in market assessment of AI competition. On the other hand, top institutional managers like Præstegaard are reassessing US market risks, challenging the traditional notion of “safe US assets.”

Brian Barbetta, co-head of the technology team at Wellington Management, pointed out that although OpenAI currently appears to be surpassed by competitors, “even if not inevitable, OpenAI is very likely to launch a new model this year that could regain market attention,” which could benefit related stocks. This suggests that the current market landscape remains in a state of dynamic evolution.

Overall, amid slowing global economic growth, rising geopolitical risks, and reshaping funding landscapes, institutional investors are adjusting their strategies across multiple dimensions, including geographic allocation, asset classes, and risk exposure. The decision shifts by Præstegaard and ATP may well be a microcosm of this broader trend.