Gelombang dovish global melanda: apakah tren depresiasi dolar AS dapat berlanjut, dan kebijakan yen Jepang menghadirkan variabel baru

The latest Federal Reserve decision signals dovish cues, triggering intense震動 in the global currency markets. The US dollar index touched a low of 98.313, down 9.38% year-to-date, while non-USD currencies and safe-haven assets gained momentum. The market’s reassessment of the 2025 rate cut outlook is changing capital allocation logic, but whether the dollar will weaken further remains uncertain.

USD Under Pressure: Policy Shift and Market Expectations Discrepancy

The Fed announced last week a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, a decision that was not surprising in itself, but Chairman Powell’s subsequent remarks broke market expectations. He hinted that the January meeting might hold steady, emphasizing that the Fed has already cut rates by 175 basis points and is currently at a neutral stance.

However, market reactions were completely opposite. According to Reuters, the new dot plot shows only one rate cut expected in 2025, far below the market pricing of two cuts (about 50 basis points). This expectation gap directly hit the dollar. UBS FX strategist Vassili Serebriakov pointed out that the Fed appears more dovish compared to other central banks—Australia, Canada, and the European Central Bank are shifting towards a hawkish stance—creating a stark contrast that continues to restrain the dollar’s performance.

Notably, the yen policy also faces adjustment pressures. As a major global reserve currency, the Bank of Japan’s moves will further influence the dollar ecosystem. The Fed announced it will purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds starting December 12 to inject liquidity, further weakening the appeal of the dollar as a safe asset.

Chain Reaction: Risk Assets Enter Revaluation Window

The weakening of the dollar is akin to opening Pandora’s box, with asset prices shifting their anchors.

Tech stocks and high-beta growth stocks stand out. The S&P 500 tech sector has gained over 20% this year. Morgan Stanley’s data model shows that for every 1% depreciation of the dollar, tech earnings increase by 5 basis points—benefiting multinational companies’ overseas income conversions and supporting corporate investment willingness due to low borrowing costs.

Precious metals market surges. Gold has risen 47% this year, surpassing the historic high of $4,200/oz. Data from the World Gold Council shows central banks bought over 1,000 tons (led by China and India), ETF net inflows surged, and dollar depreciation amplified inflation hedging demand.

Emerging markets emerge as biggest winners. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 23% this year, with South Korea, South Africa, and others driven by strong corporate earnings and dollar depreciation. Goldman Sachs research indicates that the dollar’s decline attracts capital inflows into emerging market bonds and stocks, with currencies like the Brazilian real leading gains.

However, this double-edged sword also brings concerns. Commodity prices (crude oil up 10% annually) tend to rise with dollar weakness, potentially heightening inflation expectations; if US stocks overheat, high-beta assets’ volatility could further amplify.

Reversal Point: Data Releases Will Rewrite Expectations

Although short-term dollar weakness is the mainstream view, it may be premature to draw conclusions. A Reuters poll shows 73% of 45 analysts expect the dollar to weaken further by year-end, but this consensus could unravel in the face of strong economic data.

J.P. Morgan economist Mohit Kumar said that if December CPI and non-farm payrolls data are strong, intra-Fed dissent (with three members already opposing rate cuts) could shift to a hawkish stance, pushing the dollar index back to 100. For example, the unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls increase of 119,000 in September could reverse market expectations.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns about the US fiscal deficit and government shutdown could temporarily support the dollar’s safe-haven demand, providing stability.

Outlook: Allocation Suggestions and Risk Warnings

The market is at a crossroads of global monetary policy re-evaluation. The probability of short-term dollar depreciation is relatively high, but the long-term trend depends on the depth of economic recession and the synchronization of central bank policies.

Analysts recommend investors adopt diversified strategies: increase allocations in non-USD currencies and gold while closely monitoring the latest yen policy developments as key references; avoid excessive leverage exposure to cope with increasingly complex volatility; track December employment and inflation data as critical triggers for adjusting positions.

In this period of growing uncertainty, flexible responses are wiser than one-way bets.