Preface:

Only through communication can we identify the real pain points.

Many people struggle with the idea that growing small capital is incredibly difficult—almost as hard as climbing to heaven. But that’s not true. For small capital to scale up, or to break into the primary market, the key lies in building a solid trading system. (I almost annoyed myself typing this cliché.) Everyone spouts these grand principles, but few explain how to actually build such a system or clarify it thoroughly.

Well, I’ll do it. I’ll write it. My style is raw and unfiltered—sometimes blunt, sometimes too direct, avoiding empty, roundabout talk. But that’s fine. This market needs someone to write this stuff.

Also, this article is text-heavy, which might feel tedious. Those who know my work understand that practicality and actionable insights come first. So, I believe this piece is exceptionally valuable. If you’re feeling lost, take your time, read carefully, and you’ll gain something.

I’ll share my own journey and strategies to go from a few hundred U to crossing 1 million U.

Full disclosure: I haven’t hit “A8” (a crypto wealth tier) yet—I’m still far from the big players. So, I can’t write about the path to A8.5 or A9. And since I don’t consider myself highly successful yet, I’ll save my “success story” for when I cross 5 million U.

Let’s cut to the chase. For retail traders, “small capital” ranges from a few hundred U to 1K–10K U. For this article, we’ll assume a starting point of 300U. So, this is a real-world strategy for going from 300U to 1M U in the primary MEME market—hopefully saving you some detours.

(Note: All data calculations here have inherent biases and are just one metric for evaluation.)

1. Data Organization (Using PUMP as an Example)

Let’s start with some data analysis.

On April 15, PUMP spawned 43,271 MEME coins. Yet, only 408 tokens “graduated” (fully launched).

The graduation rate was just 0.94%—less than 1%. That means 99% of tokens died in the internal market.

Here’s the data for the 408 fully launched tokens:

2. Thorough Understanding of Strategies

Strategies can essentially be categorized based on two key dimensions: trade frequency (high/low) and profit margin targets (high/low).

By combining these factors, we arrive at four distinct strategic models:

1. High frequency + High profit margin

2. High frequency + Low profit margin

3. Low frequency + High profit margin

4. Low frequency + Low profit margin

Next, we’ll quantify these strategies mathematically to compare their pros and cons.

Since this article focuses on small-capital strategies, we’ll use 300U as the baseline (my own starting point). Strategies for larger capital (10K–200K U, 200K–1M U) will come later.

At 300U (~2.4 SOL), let’s round to 2.5 SOL for calculations.

Quick note on profit percentages: Due to gas and bribe fees, if you sell in 0.1 SOL increments, each trade costs ~0.005 SOL in fees (at standard speed). To break even, you’d need another sell trade, costing another 0.005 SOL. Total fee: 0.01 SOL. So, you need at least a 10% profit on the entire position just to cover costs. Anything less means a net loss.

1. High-Frequency Trading + High-Profit Margin Model

For ease of calculation, let’s disregard transaction costs for now. Since this involves a high number of trades and a pursuit of high profits, let’s assume you have 2.5 SOL in a single day, with 0.1 SOL per trade, executing 25 trades. No stop-loss operations are performed, as the goal is to chase high multipliers.

If a “double to break even” strategy is applied, after 25 trades, to recoup your initial investment, you’d need at least one high-multiplier hit—specifically, a 4800% (48x) increase.

To achieve such a multiplier, the only viable path is to buy into the “inner market” (among 43,271 tokens) and catch a token that reaches a market cap exceeding 100K (16 tokens). With 25 attempts, the calculated probability of hitting at least one such token to break even is 0.92%, meaning your probability of losing is 99.08%.

Without the “double to break even” strategy, the required increase would be 2500% (25x).

Based on average market caps (the average market cap between 53K–100K is 76.5K, so a 25x return would require entering at 3.06K; however, PUMP’s initial market cap is already 3.8K), your only path remains buying into the inner market and catching a token exceeding 100K. The probability of breaking even is still 0.92%. If tokens with 95K market caps are included, the break-even probability ranges between 0.92%–2.06%, with the loss probability remaining around 98%.

Summary: Why is the loss probability so high? The simple reason is insufficient capital. Here, “insufficient” means not having at least 500 SOL.

Daily PVP traders won’t tell you that they have over 2,000 SOL in “dog-chasing” funds, yet they only deploy 2–10 SOL per trade. With ample capital and patience, they can afford to wait for that one big hit to cover all losses and even make a substantial profit. Mathematically, this strategy only makes sense for such large capital sizes.

For small capital, unless you possess extraordinary luck or talent—allowing you, as a beginner, to identify and hold a super high-multiplier token among tens of thousands in just a dozen attempts—you’ll gradually lose all your funds.

2. High Number of Trades + Pursuit of Low Profit Margin Model

On PUMP, the average token increase is around 663%. If we define “low profit margin” as taking profits at 15%–100%, then any price range can accommodate our 100% profit target. This scenario branches into several cases:

(3.8K–53K) Inner Market: Buying here requires convincing others to take over your position. For low-profit exits, you only need a few dozen percentage points before selling.

This is relatively easy because the inner market’s low cap means small buy orders can drive prices up. For example, doubling your money here might only require ~$4,000 in buy pressure (about 40 people). This isn’t hard—after buying, share the contract address (CA) in multiple groups, especially high-quality ones, ideally with a compelling narrative to FOMO others in. This is the quantifiable strategy some traders rigorously follow.

(53K–100K) requires relatively large buy pressure, meaning you need to attract more people to take over your position. The conditions are quite demanding—simply shilling in groups by yourself won’t be enough. You’ll have to rely on your own judgment to make selections. However, since we’re only discussing mathematical probabilities here and excluding experience-based factors, playing this model in this range is very difficult. Moreover, as everyone knows with PUMP, if a token doesn’t launch successfully, it’s fine, but once it does, the vast majority dump immediately, making this range almost worthless in terms of real opportunity.

(100K–500K) What typically drives price increases in this range?

1. Small-scale traders (“small heads”). 2. Narrative authenticity (even a slight meme or decent spreadability is enough). We can’t rely solely on small traders’ buy pressure or copy-trading, so we’re left with relying on our own experience and judgment in assessing narratives. Again, excluding this factor, let’s look at the raw mathematical data.

Based on the data, we know that among the 16 tokens exceeding 100K, 50% do not surpass 500K, while the rest exceed 500K and even go beyond 1M. This data is extremely compelling—if we enter every trade in this range, the win rate is approximately 43%, and the total combined profits roughly range from 125% to 675%. Does this conclusion surprise you?

(500K–1M) + (>1M) These two ranges are similar. To reach this level, the conditions for price increases are: 1. Large traders entering. 2. Pump groups (manipulation). 3. Tier-2 or higher narratives.

Again, whether large traders enter is uncontrollable—unless you’re their “daddy.” That leaves two factors: judging whether there’s a pump group involved and assessing the narrative’s strength and spread.

These two factors are highly experience-dependent. From a purely mathematical perspective, if we ignore experience and enter every trade, the estimated total profit range is roughly 223%–1250% or even higher (no upper limit). The reason for such a wide fluctuation in this number depends on where you choose to take profits.

3. Low Number of Trades + Pursuit of High Profit Margin Model

This category seems paradoxical at first glance. It demands exceptional skill and experience, where subjective factors dominate the strategy. For retail beginners, this approach offers little practical guidance.

However, the word “seems” is bolded for a reason—if you’re not a small-cap retail trader, this model isn’t always paradoxical. With enough experience and skill, dedicating time to this strategy can be viable.

4. Low Number of Trades + Pursuit of Low Profit Margin Model

Conditions are as follows: Fewer trades (controlled to 1~3 times), low-profit margin, with the upper limit set at 100% for profit-taking, and profit-taking points ranging from 25% to 100%. Each trade amount is 0.5 SOL.

In this model, due to quantity reasons, 100K is an important threshold. We merge intervals and set the upper limit for intervals greater than 100K to 5M.

Understood these conditions, we begin to calculate the expected returns in these two intervals for our model of fewer trades (average of 2 times, 0.5 SOL each time) + pursuing a low-profit margin (average profit-taking at 62.5%), as shown in the figure.

You may not have realized it yet, but this data is truly eye-opening. Why? Because in the 100K-5M interval, the probability of triggering a profit actually reaches 99.67%. You might not feel it strongly, but to put it another way, mathematically speaking, your probability of failure in this interval is only 0.33%.

That’s right—fewer trades + pursuing a low-profit margin model is the optimal solution among all strategies.

Summary: When starting with small capital, excluding the influence of experience and ability, the following four scenarios apply. The data in the figure below is more realistic and comprehensive.

3. Cleverly Understanding Trading—The Psychological Account

Everything mentioned so far has never touched on the factor of mindset, which greatly influences trading. Why is that? Let me explain.

At the very beginning of this stage, as a small-capital retail trader entering this market, in addition to setting up your capital account, I introduce another account here—the psychological account. This is extremely important. Since it’s an account, let me discuss the pros and cons of increases and decreases in the psychological account.

- The Downsides of a Vicious Cycle of Decreases in the Psychological Account

Many people enter this market, see stories of wealth miracles, and start randomly trading and chasing trends like those stories, always fantasizing about catching the next 10X or 100X. They keep jumping into trades, constantly taking losses, and always end up cutting their positions. In this process, their psychological account never grows; it keeps getting depleted, leaving them with less and less courage, growing more doubtful and less confident in themselves.

When you fail many times in a row, how can you still dare to place a bet to win the next one?

Influenced by this, you habitually believe that to grow small capital, you must chase extremely high-multiple coins from the start, looking down on relatively speculative opportunities with more certainty. You keep chasing meme coins without ever stopping to seriously think about what strategy truly suits you, never clearly quantifying what specific strategy is reasonable and executable.

You don’t know anything else, just one thing: payout ratios are everything. Without ever calmly reflecting on your own trading system, you eventually fall into an infinite downward death spiral and exit the market in silence.

This situation is tragic. Imagine one day, after enduring countless hardships, you finally stand before the dragon. You seem to realize that if you swing your sword, you will ascend to greatness. But your sword is already rotten, and you’ve exhausted your initial courage and drive. Even if you swing your sword, you cannot sever the dragon’s proud head—or perhaps you don’t even have the courage to swing it.

When you read this, I hope you pause, look back at my analysis, and seriously think. Thoroughly understand what specific strategy you should adopt.

- The Benefits of a Virtuous Cycle of Increases in the Psychological Account

This goes without saying. You gain confidence, become more self-assured, and stop internalizing stress. Your daily mood improves significantly, making it easier to stay calm and think clearly. When faced with a major opportunity, you can more easily recognize it and dare to take action. There are many other benefits, which I won’t elaborate on further.

4. Detailed Execution of Specific Strategies

So, how exactly should you execute this? Here, I’ll break it down for you in detail.

Specific Strategies for 350–200K

First, rigidly divide your 2.5 SOL capital into two categories. The first is the trading account, where you allocate 1.5 SOL.

Each trade should be limited to 10% of this trading account, i.e., 0.15 SOL.

In the beginning, it’s best to focus on trading MEME coins that have already established a bottom. For example, recent ones like, RFC,DARK, etc. Follow the price movements and trade in waves. Opportunities won’t come often each day, so be patient. Otherwise, the probability of stop-losses will be high. Wait for the right entry point, and once you gain a few dozen points in profit, take it. Strictly control your impulses—don’t chase excessive profits.

By doing this consistently, you’ll steadily accumulate experience and grow your psychological account.

The remaining 1 SOL goes into a reserve account. Avoid frequently touching this account. Its purpose is to train your judgment for high-probability, large-scale opportunities.

What qualifies as a high-probability, large-scale opportunity? These don’t appear often. Here are a few classic examples:

When Binance suddenly announced the listing of ACT in November, the price surged 25x in one afternoon. The rise of the AI trend, where leading tokens rallied massively on the same day. The day Trump unexpectedly launched his own token.

Whenever such opportunities arise, make your judgment and invest 30% of this reserve account.

If you successfully predict and capitalize on three such events in a row, you’ll have developed a preliminary ability to identify them. From then on, when similar situations arise, you can choose to go all-in with this account and continuously compound your gains.

Execute this strategy persistently, and your capital will grow from 300U all the way to 200KU.

Strategies for Strategy from 200K to 1M

After reaching A7 (net worth in the hundreds of thousands), you will experience a tremendous sense of achievement. Withdraw $50K—go relax, indulge a little, and satisfy some material desires. Your mindset will elevate significantly—trust me. You’ll no longer be troubled by life’s trivialities. These improvements will greatly strengthen your psychological capital.

At the A7 stage, your psychological capital is robust, and your experience is relatively rich. Now, it’s time to think more deeply and act less impulsively.

Path 1: Reduce your trading frequency and focus more on established MEME trades. Spend time daily analyzing and seeking opportunities. But remember—with this level of capital, never go all-in, never go all-in, never go all-in! Allocate only 20% for trading. By cycling 150K this way, crossing 1M is absolutely achievable.

Path 2: Engage in PVP (player vs. player) by participating in new token launches. Your capital allows for trial and error, and your psychological reserves are strong enough to cover losses through multiple attempts—or even hit massive gains.

Final Thoughts

The MEME landscape seems to have split into two eras: the pre-Trump era and the post-Trump era (now).

Those who profited from Trump withdrew massive liquidity, partying endlessly or even retiring. Those who missed out remain in the market, grinding daily, often hitting walls and struggling to make meaningful gains.

I’m not great at long motivational speeches. For me, one quote has always kept me going:

“Markets are always born in despair.”

Let me share a bit of my own experience. At the end of 2023, in another market, liquidity had completely dried up. That was also my lowest point—filled with uncertainty about the future and frustration with myself.

I was furious. I was resentful. I hated myself. Why wasn’t I the one making money? Why was I always losing? Why couldn’t I achieve the life I wanted? Why did I miss every opportunity?

But what set me apart was that, no matter how hopeless it seemed, I stayed in the market. I wanted to test whether the saying “Markets are born in despair” held any truth.

Then, one day, I caught the right wave. I boarded the savior’s chariot that always emerges in the bleakest markets, rode the momentum, and survived. I don’t think there was any skill in catching that opportunity—just persistence.

“Do not say there are no miracles in this world—deep in the abyss, divine secrets reveal themselves.”

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