ANZ Bank: Even if tariffs exacerbate inflation, the Fed may still further cut interest rates

On February 28, Jinshi Data reported that the Trump administration has confirmed that tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 2. Brian Martin, G3 economic director of ANZ Bank, said that if the impact of tariffs remains unchanged for the rest of the calendar year, it may keep the US core PCE inflation rate at around 2.6%-2.9%, compared to the pre-tariff estimate of 2.4%. He added that these estimates did not take into account possible second-round effects or offset the weakness in demand. Nevertheless, Martin said that the Fed may remain patient and follow a one-time price pump. ANZ Bank insists that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 75 basis points in this cycle and resume cutting rates in the second half of 2025.