Calculation of Bitcoin’s Next Halving Market

Past halving events show that the price of Bitcoin increased 55 times during the second halving compared to the first time, and increased 13 times during the third halving compared to the second time. This means that the magnitude of price growth decreases between halving events.
If we assume that the price growth rate for the next halving is similar to this, then it will probably be about a 3x increase. Considering that the price at the third halving was $8,740, based on this assumption, the price at the next halving (i.e. May 2024) may be close to around $8,740 * 3 = $26,220.
Bitcoin prices have been hovering between $25,500 and $27,000 for a long period of time recently, which makes it not too outrageous for the next halving to be close to this range.
Judging from historical data, the highest price increase of Bitcoin after each halving has shown a gradual downward trend. For example, the highest price after the first halving reached $1,163, nearly 110 times the price before the halving; the highest price after the second halving was $19,666, nearly 30 times the pre-halving price of $663; The highest price after the third halving was $69,000, which was 8 times the pre-halving price of $1,451.
Therefore, we should not have too high expectations for the highest price after the next halving. Given this trend, we can discount this and assume that the maximum price increase is a quarter of the previous one. According to this estimate, the maximum price after the next halving may be around $105,000.
Please note that this is only an estimate and does not represent an exact price. The Bitcoin market is very complex and is affected by many factors, so there is a certain degree of uncertainty in price predictions.
When is the highest price likely to occur after the halving?
Historically, there has been a trend of gradual elongation, and they all occur between November and December at the end of the year. For example: the highest price after the first halving occurred on the 362nd day after the halving, the second halving on the 525th day, and the third halving on the 548th day. Assuming that the next interval is 580 days, from 2024 Adding 580 days to the beginning of May, it will be the end of November and the beginning of December 2025, reaching the peak of the next bull market.
The bottom price of the bear market after the bull market ends
Let’s take a look at what price it may fall to after the bull market ends after the halving, that is, where is the bottom of the bear market? Just as the increase in the highest price decreases gradually, the bottom of the bear market also takes advantage of the downward trend. For example: the bottom of the bear market when the bull market ended after the first halving was 152USD, which was 12 times the price of 12USD at the time of halving, the second time it was nearly 5 times, and the third time it was less than 2 times. Assuming it is 1.5 times next time, the bottom may be around 40,000USD, which is a drop of about 60% from the highest price.
Finally, when will the next bear market bottom occur?
Similar to the time interval between bull market tops, which are gradually lengthening, bear market bottom prices also have a similar trend. For example, after the first halving, the time when the bull market turned to bear bottom price occurred 775 days from the halving day, the second time was 880 days, and the third time was 880 days. It is 923 days. If the next interval is 970 days, this time point may be around Christmas in December 2026.