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A public chain deeply integrated with Telegram—Analysis of the TOP Gainers: TON

To talk about the most popular public chain project recently, I believe it’s none other than Ton. Today’s DOGS is its on-chain project. The uniqueness of TON lies in that it is not just a blockchain, but an ecosystem deeply linked with the world's largest communication platform, Telegram. Let’s take a look at it today.

1. Basic Fundamentals

TON (The Open Network) is a next-generation blockchain platform focusing on speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to handle millions of transactions per second when necessary, while remaining user- and service provider-friendly.

The history of TON dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was later forced to halt due to legal action from the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over the project and continued development, transforming TON from "Telegram’s blockchain" to "Telegram ecosystem’s blockchain." In May 2026, a fundamental shift occurred—Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON. This is step 2 of the MTONGA roadmap’s 7 steps.

TON’s technical architecture adopts an "infinite sharding" design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding, theoretically allowing unlimited throughput growth as demand increases.

Core application scenarios in the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallet, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent functions (TON Tech released on April 28th, capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking operations).

2. Current Market Overview

TON’s current price is $1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, intraday fluctuation range between $1.3635 and $1.8742. 7-day increase is 37.35%, 30-day increase 46.85%, 90-day increase 44.06%, showing a very strong short-term upward trend. Market cap is approximately $4.85B, ranked 27th, a mid-cap token.

24-hour trading volume is about 15.6 million USDT, with a trading volume of 9.03M TON tokens. Contract open interest increased by 22.36% in 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million tokens), indicating highly volatile leverage trading. The Fear & Greed index has risen to 50, shifting market sentiment from fear to neutral leaning towards greed.

Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: 85% positive, 15% negative, with a sentiment score of 70%, dominated by bullish sentiment. Discussion activity has surged—posts in the last 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).

3. Recent Major Events and Catalysts

Event 1: Telegram officially takes over TON (most core catalyst)

On May 4–5, Durov announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main driver and largest validator of TON. This means TON shifts from a "community-driven blockchain" back to an "officially supported Telegram blockchain," backed by the world's largest communication platform with 900 million monthly active users. Related technical upgrades will be launched within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge—Telegram’s official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.

Event 2: Transaction fees reduced by 6 times to near zero

After validator voting, TON network transaction fees have been reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and USDT transfer costs about $0.00142. Near-zero fees significantly lower user barriers, laying infrastructure groundwork for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini Apps ecosystem.

Event 3: TON Tech launches AI agents

On April 28, TON Tech released AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON’s deployment in this field adds extra narrative premium.

Event 4: Mainnet validator rules update

On May 2, TON officially announced an update to mainnet validator rules, raising the minimum staking threshold from 824k TON to 1 million TON, with a proposed maximum increase to 3 million TON. Increasing staking requirements means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which boosts staking demand and reduces circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.

4. Technical Analysis

Trend Signals

Trend is extremely strong. 4-hour ADX=49.73 (PDI=53.53 far exceeds MDI=1.68), daily ADX is similarly high, indicating a very strong upward trend among analyzed tokens. All moving averages from 15-minute to daily are in bullish alignment—MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes, confirming a consistent upward trend.

The 4-hour PDI (53.53) vs. MDI (1.68) shows a huge gap (~32 times), meaning upward momentum overwhelmingly dominates downward, with bulls in full control. Such extreme PDI/MDI ratios rarely appear in normal markets and often accompany major bullish catalysts leading to rapid surges.

Bollinger Bands opening upward with price far above the upper band—current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the upper Bollinger band at 1.6220, with bandwidth at 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. Price breaking above the upper band indicates strong momentum.

24-hour volume surge—trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (9.03M vs. 415k USDT), showing significant capital participation. Unlike DOGS, where price rise volume shrank, TON’s rapid surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.

Comparison with DOGS overbought condition

Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ:

TON has volume support—trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS’s rising price with shrinking volume, only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacks fund backing.

TON has fundamental catalysts—Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS’s catalysts mainly from Revolut listing and TON ecosystem spillover.

TON’s market cap is larger—$824k (rank 27) vs. DOGS’s $37.39 million (rank 576), with more liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.

This means that although TON is severely overbought, the "quality" of overbought is higher—supported by funds and fundamentals, so the correction may be milder; whereas unsupported hype may see sharper pullbacks.

5. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Short-term (1–3 days)

TON is in a state of "extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts." Unlike DOGS’s false overbought, TON’s rally is backed by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more meaningful.

However, extreme overbought almost always signals a technical correction. Currently, it’s not suitable to chase the high. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking—at 4-hour RSI=91, a correction could happen at any time. Protect realized gains rather than chasing further gains.

If you want to buy in, wait for a price pullback to the 4-hour moving average support zone. MA7 around 1.61, MA30 around 1.40—these could be support levels during a correction. Once overbought indicators are digested, risk-reward improves.

Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions—during holding, you can earn funding, adding an extra advantage for long TON positions.

Mid to Long-term (1–3 months)

TON’s medium to long-term outlook improves significantly with Telegram’s takeover catalyst. Reach of 900 million users + near-zero fees + staking threshold increase + AI narrative form a strong bullish case. The subsequent steps in the MTONGA roadmap will be key variables for medium-long-term trends.

However, the current surge is mainly driven by news catalysts rather than actual ecosystem activity growth. Implementation takes time, and expectations may lag or cause corrections. Investors optimistic about TON in the medium-long term should focus on real ecosystem data rather than just narratives.