When Did the 2024 Bull Season Start: Post-Halving Periodic Analysis

When examining historical data to understand Bitcoin’s cyclical movements, it is observed that there is a specific time interval between each of the three halvings and the start of a bull market. Analyses conducted during the preparation period for 2024 have provided important clues to revisit this historical cycle. So, when exactly did the 2024 bull season activate?

Lessons Learned from the Past Three Halvings

The three significant halvings in Bitcoin’s history show us how the market responded. After the first halving in 2012, a bull market began 48 days later; in 2016, this period extended to 259 days. In 2020, the upward trend started 149 days after the halving. When examining these three periods, the average waiting time is approximately 152 days. In other words, the bullish cycle tends to begin about five months after the halving event.

What Does the 152-Day Average Cycle Tell Us?

The average of 152 days, calculated from the data of 48, 259, and 149 days, helps predict market dynamics after halving. The fundamental meaning of this statistical average is that investors and market participants may need to price in expectations for the new Coinbase cycle. The market’s rebalancing and price discovery after Bitcoin’s block reward halving correspond to this time period.

Predicted vs. Actual Timing in 2024

Based on past data, projections indicated that the 2024 bull season would start around September, approximately five months after April. The period following the halving on April 19, 2024, exhibited dynamics that confirmed this estimate. Indeed, in the timeframe approaching autumn 2024, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ETH showed significant gains, and there were notable increases in USDT liquidity flows. These findings demonstrate that the 2024 bull season aligns with the historical cycle expectations for investors.

The cyclical nature of the crypto market emerges not only from technical analysis but also from the combined influence of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics. The 2024 bull season experience once again highlights that these historical patterns serve as valuable reference points for future predictions.