The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes will be released tonight, revealing details of the decision-makers' disagreements

On December 31, at 3 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December 9-10 policy meeting, revealing increasingly internal disagreements among decision-makers. Under the dual pressures of inflation and employment, the Fed’s next move remains uncertain. The decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December was met with three dissenting votes—two from regional Fed presidents who believed no rate cut was necessary, and one from Fed Governor Milan, who, since joining the Fed in September, has become the third person to advocate for a significant 50 basis point cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated after the meeting that “there are strong differing opinions” on which of these two risks requires more policy attention. For next year, there is even greater disagreement among policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates, with some even believing that no rate cut is appropriate. Among the 19 Fed policymakers, six see a 3.9% end-of-2025 rate as appropriate, a level higher than the rate after the actual rate cut.