Arthur Hayes warns: "Invisible QE" may restart, potentially triggering the next Bitcoin bull run.

On November 4, CEX founder Arthur Hayes published a lengthy article stating that the operations of the U.S. Treasury and the Fed are brewing a “Stealth QE,” which could become the core catalyst for a new round of rise in Bitcoin and the crypto market. Currently, U.S. government spending continues to expand, and political incentives determine that they are more inclined to issue bonds rather than raise taxes. Foreign central banks are more inclined to purchase gold instead of U.S. Treasuries due to the risks of confiscation of dollar assets after the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. personal savings rate is insufficient to support the issuance of national debt, while the four major commercial banks have only absorbed a small portion of the new debt. The “Relative Value (RV) Hedge Fund” has become a marginal buyer of U.S. Treasuries, primarily purchasing them through leveraged financing via repurchase agreements (repo). The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue about $2 trillion in new debt annually to cover the deficit. When market liquidity tightens and SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) exceeds the upper limit of federal funds, the Fed injects cash directly into the market through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). This is equivalent to “de facto QE”: printing money → lending → supporting the Treasury market. As the usage of SRF increases, global dollar liquidity rises, and the actual effect is equivalent to QE. Hayes predicts that this will reignite the bull run cycle of Bitcoin and the crypto market. “Whenever the Fed expands its balance sheet, BTC rises.” Currently, during the U.S. government shutdown and Treasury auctions, liquidity is tightening in the short term, putting pressure on the crypto market. Hayes advises investors to “preserve capital and wait for opportunities,” stating that the market will welcome a strong rebound after the “Stealth QE” is initiated.