Analysis: Short-term bullish and bearish forces are returning to the long-term equilibrium point, and a new trend direction is brewing.

On September 28, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the difference in trading volume of perpetual futures between long and short positions (VDB) is used to measure the difference between active buying and active selling trading volume. A positive value indicates stronger long positions, while a negative value indicates stronger short positions. Comparing it to the 90-day median serves as a mid- to long-term "anchor" or "balance line" to assess whether the current trend of long and short forces is relatively strong or weak. The current VDB of CEX and other mainstream trading platforms has all returned to the 90-day median, indicating that the short-term forces of long and short positions have reverted to the long-term equilibrium point, and there is currently no obvious "sustained buying bias" or "sustained selling bias" in the market. The previous short-term trends (whether bullish or bearish) are fading, and market forces are returning to equilibrium. This phenomenon often occurs during transitional periods in the market, where trends may be brewing new directions. If the VDB can continue to maintain above neutral and start to lean towards positive values, it would indicate that funds are gradually re-aligning to the buying side, which is favorable for a short-term rebound in the market. However, even with a short-term rebound, it is still important to consider STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) as a key judgment basis, which is currently around $111,500. If it cannot break through, and the VDB quickly turns negative at this point, it would indicate that selling pressure is regaining the advantage, and prices may face further adjustments. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.