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Blockchain Scale Law: DeFi rise meets bottleneck, public chain economic system may reach peak of $300 billion
Discussion on the Scale Law in the Encryption Field: The Rise Limit of Decentralized Finance
The cryptocurrency world is undergoing a profound transformation. The scale laws in the field of large models seem to complete their lifecycle faster than Moore's Law in the chip industry. In this context, we can't help but ask: Are there similar rules in the blockchain field?
Starting from the scale of full node data, we can see the huge differences between different public chains. Since its genesis in 2015, Ethereum's full node data volume has only been around 13 TB, far below Solana's 400 TB. Bitcoin, on the other hand, showcases an excellent design with a data volume of 643.2 GB.
The design of Bitcoin strictly considers the hardware development curve, limiting data growth within an acceptable range. This is particularly important in the context of the current slowdown in hardware development. Whether in the CPU, GPU, or storage fields, technological advances are gradually encountering bottlenecks. This means that the underlying hardware of public chains may remain stagnant for a considerable period.
In the face of this challenge, different public chains have adopted different strategies. Ethereum focuses on ecological optimization and reconstruction, striving to take the lead in the RWA asset field. Solana, on the other hand, pursues extreme performance, but its large node scale has effectively excluded the possibility of individual participation.
From the perspective of the token economic system, we can roughly estimate the limit of the public chain economic system to be around $300 billion. This is not an absolute cap, but rather a reasonable scale recognized by the current market. It is worth noting that the yield in the DeFi sector is showing a downward trend, gradually decreasing from the early high yields to more sustainable levels.
Overall, the blockchain field seems to have reached the limits of its own scale laws. Since the rise of DeFi just a few years ago, we have already seen rapid development and bottlenecks in the industry. In the future, how to achieve breakthroughs within the existing constraints will be an important challenge facing the entire industry.