On the morning of May 18, #比特币披萨节# , Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000, but then stabilized and rose back above that level.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour K-line shows that the price has continuously closed with bearish candles. The MACD has formed a death cross and has crossed below the zero line, while the RSI indicator is approaching the oversold area, with bearish momentum dominating. The current support level is at 102,233 dollars, and if it breaks, it may further test 101,719 dollars; the resistance level above is concentrated around 104,830 dollars, which requires accompanying trading volume to break through. At the same time, recent volume-price divergence reflects the market's lack of confidence in breaking through the high levels.
Market Bull-Bear Game
Support logic: The $93,500 - $94,200 range is seen as a short-term pivotal point for bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes above $102,000, it may attract institutional funds to buy on dips. On-chain data shows that the recent outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges has increased, indicating that some large holders still prefer to accumulate coins.
Pressure logic: If the effective breakthrough of $105,800 (historical resistance level) is not achieved, the market may enter a correction cycle, and one should be cautious of the risk of a high retracement.
Macroeconomic and policy impacts
Policy benefits digestion: Although the U.S. Treasury's plan to increase its Bitcoin holdings by $5 billion is a medium to long-term positive, the short-term market reaction is becoming more rational, with some funds choosing to take profits.
Regulatory Risk Warning: With the G20 summit approaching, the uncertainty of global cryptocurrency regulatory policies may suppress market risk appetite. The policy-sensitive period after May 19 should be closely monitored.