Yen-Zinserhöhung aussichtslos? Japanische Anleihen kollabieren, "Rendite steigt auf 27-Jahreshoch", Hormuz-Meerenge-Krieg würgt Japans Wirtschaft ab

Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield Rises to 2.32%, Approaching 27-Year High; Trump’s 48-Hour Ultimatum to Iran Expires Tonight; Crude Oil Surges Past $97, with Japan’s 73.7% Oil Imports Relying on the Hormuz Strait; Markets Hold Their Breath to See if the Impact Will Spread to Crypto Markets.
（Background: Japan’s bond yields soar to 1.86%, a 17-year high, “Causing Bitcoin to Crash,” revealing the risks of a ¥600 trillion arbitrage unwind）
（Additional context: Why did Bitcoin fall first ahead of the BOJ’s rate hike?）

Table of Contents

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• 73.7% — Japan’s Energy Lifeline Tied to a Strait
• The BOJ’s Dilemma: Rate Hike or Pause — Both Are Wrong
• Lessons from the Crypto Market: August 2024’s Memory Still Fresh
• Tonight’s Expiry: Markets Hold Their Breath

The Japanese government bond market is sounding its loudest alarm in 27 years. On March 23, 2026, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 2.32%, nearing the 1999 January high; the 5-year yield also climbed 5 basis points to 1.72%, just shy of its all-time high since issuance. While these figures look like technical data, the underlying driver is a geopolitical bomb that could explode at any moment.

73.7% — Japan’s Energy Lifeline Tied to a Strait

Most market participants focus on the US Treasury yields (10-year at 4.40%), but underestimate the asymmetry of this impact on Japan. Of Japan’s crude oil imports, 73.7% are transported via the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the Strait be opened; otherwise, he threatened to bomb power plants. The deadline expires tonight in New York time. Oil prices have already surged past $97 per barrel.

If the strait is truly blocked, Europe and North America can diversify risk via the North Atlantic route, but Japan cannot. This structural energy dependence makes the geopolitical conflict’s impact on Japan’s inflation transmission much faster and more severe than in other developed economies.

The BOJ’s Dilemma: Rate Hike or Pause — Both Are Wrong

The Bank of Japan faces a no-win choice. Current inflation is “cost-push”—not driven by wage-led demand, but by passive increases in energy import costs. The BOJ has been waiting for “demand-pull” inflation to justify a rate hike; however, the oil shock has disrupted this rhythm.

Raising rates can curb inflation expectations but will further weaken the fragile economic recovery; pausing to preserve growth risks letting inflation expectations spiral out of control. The BOJ maintains its policy rate unchanged, but markets are already pricing in future rate hikes—this expectation is beginning to influence global capital flows.

Lessons from the Crypto Market: August 2024’s Memory Still Fresh

For crypto markets, the danger of rising Japanese yields isn’t the yields themselves but the chain reaction they trigger. The mechanism: rising Japanese yields → reversal of yen carry trades → forced liquidation of risk assets → crypto assets like BTC bear the brunt.

This is not just theory. On “Black Monday,” August 5, 2024, the surge in Japanese yields triggered a massive unwind, with BTC plunging over 15% in a single day and global crypto market cap evaporating billions. Back then, yields were much lower than today.

The environment now is even more complex: US 10-year yields are at 4.40%, and both US and Japanese yields are rising simultaneously, indicating a global liquidity tightening. Morgan Stanley forecasted USD/JPY to fall to 140 by early 2026; if yen appreciation materializes, the repatriation of yen-denominated assets will further pressure emerging markets and risk assets. In this liquidity-tightening environment, BTC remains the most sensitive indicator.

Tonight’s Expiry: Markets Hold Their Breath

The 48-hour ultimatum expires tonight. Three scenarios are being priced in simultaneously: Iran compromises and opens the strait (oil prices fall, tensions ease), US-Iran negotiations continue with uncertainty (volatility persists), or the US takes military action (oil prices spike past $100, Japan’s inflation accelerates, carry trades reverse rapidly).

Data shows that Japanese yields are already at a 27-year high, and market tolerance is thinner than it appears. The lesson from August 2024 is clear: when Japan’s alarm sounds, crypto markets are often the first to receive the warning.