XRP December cycle pattern exposed! Analyst: Significant fluctuation is imminent at a turning point.

According to Jason Pizzino's latest analysis, since 2014, the major long positions and Bear Market trends of XRP have followed a very consistent rhythm over the years—each trend lasts approximately 12 to 13 months or its multiples. The current price movement is again following a 12-13 month cycle, approaching the same time interval as previous breakouts.

Historical Evidence of XRP 12-13 Month Cycle

(Source: Trading View)

According to a recent analysis by Jason Pizzino, XRP has followed a very consistent rhythm in its major long positions and bear market trends over the years—each trend lasts about 12 to 13 months, or its multiples. Looking at XRP from a monthly chart, this pattern is hard to ignore. Each major phase—whether it is a rise or a pullback—lasts about 12 to 13 months, thereby forming a clear annual rhythm.

From 2014 to 2016, the early accumulation phase alternated every 12-13 months, laying the foundation for future fluctuations. During this period, the price of XRP was relatively stable, oscillating at low levels with limited market participants, but on-chain activities and ecological development were progressing steadily. This accumulation phase laid the groundwork for the explosive rise in 2017.

The 2017-2018 period experienced a historic 12-month bull market, followed by a bear market lasting 26 months (790 days)—exactly twice the typical cycle. The bull market of 2017 witnessed XRP soaring from about $0.006 to an all-time high of $3.84, a rise of over 64000%. This explosive increase attracted global attention, and XRP briefly became the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. However, the subsequent 26-month bear market was equally severe, with prices plummeting over 90% from the peak to around $0.20.

A key observation is that 26 months is exactly twice 12-13 months. This multiplicative relationship is not a coincidence, but rather suggests that the market cycle of XRP has some intrinsic rhythm. When excessive enthusiasm in the market leads to a price surge, the subsequent adjustment period is often a multiple of the previous uptrend, in order to fully digest the excessive speculation and restore a healthy market structure.

From 2020 to 2022, the price once again followed the same rise and fall rhythm, with only one adjustment lasting 14 months during this period, which may be related to the broader cryptocurrency bear market and regulatory pressures. From the end of 2020 to 2021, XRP rebounded from $0.17 to $1.96, although it failed to break through the historical high of 2017, the increase still reached over 10 times. The subsequent adjustment period was severely affected by the SEC lawsuit, causing this cycle to be slightly extended to 14 months.

From 2023 to 2025, the current price movement is once again following a 12-13 month cycle, nearing the same time interval as previous breakthroughs. After Ripple achieved a partial victory in the SEC lawsuit in July 2023, XRP began a new round of rising cycle. If calculated according to the 12-13 month cycle, this rising phase may peak in mid-2024 or early 2025.

XRP Historical Cycle Timeline

2014-2016: Accumulation phase, alternating between December and January

2017: December Bull Market (0.006 → 3.84 USD)

2018-2019: 26 months Bear Market (double cycle)

2020-2021: December rebound (0.17 → 1.96 USD)

2021-2022: 14 month adjustment (affected by SEC lawsuit)

2023-2025: The current cycle is approaching the 12-13 month node.

Market Psychology Behind the 12-13 Month Cycle

The cryptocurrency market experiences wave-like fluctuations influenced by investor sentiment and liquidity movements. For XRP, this rhythm may reflect periodic behavioral changes—enthusiasm, accumulation, and eventual fatigue—processes that tend to recur approximately on an annual cycle. It may also relate to macro liquidity cycles or the timing of regulatory and ecosystem developments associated with the Ripple network.

From a psychological perspective, 12-13 months is roughly equivalent to a year, which is a natural cycle unit for human society and economic activities. Corporate financial reports are released quarterly and annually, government budgets are prepared annually, and investors tend to evaluate investment performance on an annual basis. When an asset has been continuously rising or falling for about a year, investors naturally reassess their positions, increasing the psychological pressure to take profits or stop losses.

From a liquidity perspective, institutional capital allocation and rebalancing typically occur on an annual basis. When the new year begins, fund managers adjust their asset allocation based on the previous year's performance and expectations for the new year. If XRP performed well in the past year, it may attract more institutional capital inflow; if it performed poorly, it may be reduced. This institutionalized capital flow may be one of the underlying drivers of the 12-13 month cycle.

From Ripple's business rhythm, the company may have some form of annual strategic planning and execution cycle. For example, Ripple typically makes significant announcements at the annual Swell conference, and this annual event rhythm may affect the market's expectations and trading behavior regarding XRP. Additionally, Ripple's XRP sales and escrow unlocks may also follow some form of annual pattern, although the official claim is that it occurs monthly, the actual market impact may accumulate and manifest annually.

Current Cycle Position and Future Outlook

If this time pattern continues, XRP may be about to experience another significant directional volatility in the coming months. This time-based stability is rare among large-cap cryptocurrency assets. Currently, the price movement is once again following a 12-13 month cycle, approaching the same time interval before past breakthroughs.

Analyzing from the current time point, if the new round of XRP's upward cycle began in July 2023 (partial victory in the SEC lawsuit), the key time window calculated at 12-13 months would be around July-August 2024. However, after XRP reaches a peak of $3.65 in July 2024, it begins to pull back, which may signify the end of the upward cycle and the start of a new adjustment cycle. If the adjustment cycle similarly lasts 12-13 months, the next important time point will be around July-August 2025.

As Pizzino said, “history repeats itself,” suggesting that XRP may be about to experience another significant market movement. If we are at the end of an adjustment cycle, XRP may complete its bottoming process and begin a new round of growth in the coming months. If we are still in the continuation of a bullish cycle, it may enter an adjustment after reaching a cyclical peak. In either case, understanding this 12-13 month cycle can help investors grasp key turning points.

Although the 12-13 month cyclical pattern does not guarantee the next price movement, it does help traders identify potential turning points—especially after a long uptrend or consolidation. Currently, XRP is at one of those turning points. From a technical analysis perspective, combining time cycle analysis with price patterns, volume, and momentum indicators can provide a more complete market picture.

Practical Application of Cyclical Patterns and Risk Warnings

From a practical standpoint, the 12-13 month cycle pattern of XRP provides investors with a clear operational framework. As we enter the 10th to 11th month of an uptrend cycle, one should begin to consider taking profits or at least reducing positions, as a cyclical peak may be forthcoming. As we enter the 10th to 11th month of a correction cycle, one should start to consider building positions in batches, as a cyclical low may be approaching.

However, investors must also recognize the limitations of this cycle analysis. First, historical patterns do not guarantee future repetitions. The crypto market is constantly evolving, with changes in the regulatory environment, market participant structure, and technological developments, all of which may disrupt historical cycles. Second, the precise duration of cycles may vary. 12-13 months is a rough range, and the actual cycle could be 11 months or 14 months; over-reliance on exact timing could lead to poor decision-making.

Third, cycle analysis cannot predict the direction and magnitude of fluctuations. It is known that XRP may experience significant fluctuations at a certain point in time, but whether this fluctuation is a breakout or a collapse needs to be determined in conjunction with other analytical tools. Fundamental analysis (Ripple's business progress, regulatory environment, partnerships), technical analysis (price patterns, support and resistance, momentum indicators), and analysis of capital flow (on-chain data, exchange reserves) are all necessary supplements.

Fourth, black swan events may completely disrupt the cycle. The 14-month adjustment in 2022 was extended due to the unexpected factor of the SEC lawsuit. If similar significant regulatory events, technical vulnerabilities, or macroeconomic crises occur in the future, the cycle pattern may fail.

From a risk management perspective, even if one believes in cyclical patterns, it is unwise to bet all funds on a single point in time. A smarter strategy is to operate in batches during cyclical turning windows (for example, the 10th to 14th month), so as not to miss opportunities due to acting too early, nor suffer losses due to reacting too late. Additionally, set stop-loss and profit target, and do not ignore actual price behavior just because of belief in cycles.

For long-term investors, the cyclical pattern of XRP offers an interesting perspective, but the ultimate decision to invest should be based on confidence in Ripple's technology and business, rather than simply on the timing of cycles. Cycle analysis is an auxiliary tool, not a shortcut that replaces fundamental research. At the current moment when XRP is at a potential turning point, it is wise to make a comprehensive investment judgment that combines possible announcements from the Swell conference, the evolution of the regulatory environment, and the macro market conditions.