Sui Price Prediction: Fed Uncertainty Triggers $1.1 Billion Liquidation in the Crypto Market, SUI May Pullback 20% in the Short Term

Fed Chairman Powell expressed uncertainty about whether to cut rates again in December, leading to a high of $1.1 billion in crypto long positions being liquidated within 24 hours in the crypto market. Affected by this macro unfavourable information, the price of the emerging public chain project Sui (SUI) fell nearly 12% in the past day, dropping to $2.25. Even more concerning is that SUI's on-chain activity has remained low since July, with TVL shrinking significantly, and it has broken below the key support level of $2.3 on technical charts, facing more than 20% downside risk and possibly dropping to around $1.75.

Powell's “Uncertainty”: $1.1 billion long positions were wiped out

After the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, the market should have welcomed short-term easing. However, a statement from Fed Chairman Powell completely reversed market expectations.

Powell clearly stated: “Further rate cuts at the December meeting are not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” This has created a huge conflict with the market's previous “baseline expectation” (i.e., a 25 basis point rate cut in December). According to CME Group's FedWatch survey data, analysts' expectations for the probability of a rate cut in December have dropped from 91% to 73%. The sharp shift in macroeconomic expectations has forced analysts to reassess forecasts across all asset classes, triggering a sell-off of risk assets.

This kind of “sell the news” panic sentiment quickly spread to the crypto market, leading to a surge in long positions liquidation to an astonishing 1.1 billion USD, reminiscent of the brutal scene during the flash crash on October 10, where a large number of high-leverage traders were liquidated.

Sui (SUI) On-chain data is disappointing: activity is sluggish, and TVL has shrunk significantly.

As a new generation of high-performance public chain, the token SUI of Sui has performed particularly weakly under macro Unfavourable Information. The deeper reason lies in the continued sluggishness of its on-chain indicators.

Despite the fact that the SUI network outperforms Ethereum in terms of speed, scalability, and cost, the growth of its ecosystem has been less than satisfactory. Daily active users (DAUs) once plummeted from 1.7 million in July to 400,000, and have recently recovered to 1.2 million. Even more concerning, the balance of stablecoins within the ecosystem has shrunk by about 17% recently. Although the successful launch of protocols like Momentum briefly increased market interest, according to data from DeFi Llama, the total locked value (TVL) of the protocol has fallen from $633 million on October 25 to the current $321 million. This lack of momentum in ecosystem growth may be a major obstacle preventing SUI from reaching new historical highs in this cycle.

SUI falls below key support, facing over 20% downside risk in the short term.

On the daily chart, SUI has yet to fully recover from the flash crash on October 10. The token price had previously fallen below the trendline support and confirmed the reverse resistance during the subsequent rebound.

(Source: TradingView)

SUI has broken through the key support level of 2.3 USD today, with trading volume surging 60% to 1.5 billion USD, accounting for about 19% of SUI's circulating market value, indicating significant selling pressure.

• Technical Risk: Falling below the $2.3 support indicates that SUI faces deeper correction risks than the flash crash on October 10. The next key target looks towards the area of $1.75, which means SUI has over 20% downside potential in the short term.
• Momentum Indicator Confirmation: Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just broken below the 14-day moving average, confirming that negative momentum is accelerating. Additionally, the SUI price is 30% lower than the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that the long-term trend is still in a bearish bias.

Conclusion

Sui is facing a double blow: macroeconomic uncertainty has led to panic selling in the market, and its own on-chain indicators continue to weaken. The lack of vibrant ecosystem growth, coupled with the loss of key support levels on the technical charts, has sent a strong warning signal to SUI traders. In the context of depressed market sentiment and bearish technical patterns, SUI is likely to remain under pressure in the short term. For the public chain track and SUI investment, closely monitoring the recovery of TVL and user activity is crucial.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.