A Comprehensive Analysis of Airdrops: 88% of Tokens "Do Not Survive" Beyond 3 Months, What Are the Key Reasons Behind the Success?

The history of large-scale token distributions proves that the real value lies not in the tokens themselves, but in the user behaviors they can leverage. This article is based on a piece by Sara Gherghelas, organized, compiled, and written by BitpushNews. (Background: Airdrop Hunter's List: The Top 10 Potential Protocols Worth Exploring This Year) (Background Supplement: After Three Months of Sweeping, Only Ten Dollars Earned: The Golden Era of Airdrops Has Passed) Although airdrops have changed the Web3 ecosystem in terms of user growth and attention, whether they can create a lasting ecosystem or merely trigger temporary speculative activities remains a focal point of concern. Airdrops are one of the most powerful growth tools in Web3, capable of generating massive attention and attracting millions of users within just a few days. In the past two years, projects in areas such as Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and blockchain gaming have distributed tokens worth billions of dollars to reward early adopters and attract new participants. However, the real question is: did these distributions create a lasting ecosystem, or were they just temporary speculative activities? Despite airdrops continuously driving stunning surges in user growth and trading volume, their long-term impact on retention, engagement, and token value is much less certain. This report analyzes the outcomes of high-value airdrops in DeFi, NFTs, and gaming, focusing on how they affect user behavior, token performance, and on-chain activities. Key Takeaways (Key Takeaways) * Since 2017, projects have distributed over $20 billion in airdrop tokens, with $4.5 billion just in 2023, making airdrops one of the most powerful yet costly growth strategies in Web3. * 88% of airdrop tokens lose value within three months, highlighting the gap between short-term speculation and long-term sustainability. * Airdrops can reliably generate massive activity spikes: Arbitrum achieved a daily trading volume of 2.5 million when launched, and Blur captured over 70% of NFT trading volume overnight. * Retention remains a weak point: on average, activity levels fall back to about 20% to 40% higher than pre-airdrop levels within weeks, with most claimants choosing to cash out and exit. 1. What are Airdrops? How do they Shape Web3 Growth? In the Web3 ecosystem, airdrops refer to the act of distributing free tokens to a set of wallets, usually to reward past activities or incentivize future participation. Unlike Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), which require users to purchase tokens, airdrops place tokens directly in users' hands. The basic logic is simple: by relinquishing ownership, projects can guide communities, decentralize governance, and create immediate liquidity for their tokens. Airdrops come in different forms: * Retroactive Airdrops: Reward users who interacted with the protocol in the past (e.g., Uniswap in 2020, Arbitrum in 2023). * Incentive Airdrops: Encourage ongoing behaviors such as trading, staking, or referrals (e.g., Blur's points system). * Community Airdrops: Reward NFT holders, developers, or members of social communities (e.g., BONK on Solana). * Since 2017, airdrops have evolved from an eccentric way of spreading news into one of the most effective marketing strategies in Web3. Projects no longer pay for advertising but distribute ownership. The idea is that users who feel like stakeholders are more likely to try the product, spread the word, and remain loyal. Key Milestones in Airdrop History: * 2017–2018, The First Wave: First appeared during the ICO era. Many projects used airdrops to cheaply grow Telegram groups and wallet addresses. The impact was mostly speculative, with few users continuing to engage after claiming. * 2020, The UNI Gold Standard: Uniswap's $UNI airdrop set the gold standard. By distributing 400 UNI (worth about $1,200 at the time, peaking over $12,000) to every historical user, Uniswap turned early adopters into evangelists. It also established that retroactive airdrops are a fair way to reward 'true believers.' * 2021–2022, The Era of Airdrop Strategy Manuals: Airdrops became part of strategy manuals: dYdX, ENS, LooksRare, etc., used them to attract traders, domain service users, or NFT collectors. Some projects succeeded, while others were overwhelmed by 'farmers.' * 2023–2025, The Super Airdrop Era: Arbitrum ($1.97 billion), Blur ($818 million), and Worldcoin ( continue to airdrop to over 10 million users, showcasing how large-scale distributions can change entire ecosystems overnight. Although precise tracking is challenging, estimates indicate: * Since 2017, there have been hundreds of airdrops in DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and infrastructure sectors. * The total value distributed via airdrops exceeds $20 billion, with $4.5 billion just in 2023 (including Arbitrum, Blur, Celestia, etc.). * Major airdrops typically target 100,000 to 1 million addresses, while global initiatives like Worldcoin aim for tens of millions of users. * Research shows that about 88% of airdrop tokens lose value within three months of release, which highlights that while airdrops are successful as marketing activities, they rarely ensure long-term token strength. Why do Airdrops Work as Marketing Tools? * Low Barrier: Users receive free tokens → try the product. * Word of Mouth Effect: Large airdrops become headlines ('free money'), generating viral spread. * Decentralization: Tokens spread ownership, empower users with governance rights, and (at least in theory) align them with the project's future. * Competitive Pressure: Airdrops can quickly shift market share (e.g., Blur against OpenSea). However, they also come with challenges: Airdrop Farming, immediate dumping, and retention dilemmas. Nevertheless, by 2025, airdrops will still be one of the most effective, albeit imperfect, marketing weapons in the dapp industry. 2. DeFi and Layer-2 Airdrops: Do They Promote User Growth or Feed 'Farming'? The DeFi space has always been at the core of the airdrop phenomenon. From decentralized exchanges to Layer-2 scaling networks, various protocols reward early users with token distributions, decentralize governance, and most importantly: attract new users. In fact, the largest and most discussed airdrop cases in Web3 history largely originate from DeFi and network scaling solutions. L2 Network Airdrop The most famous case is Arbitrum's airdrop in March 2023. By distributing 1.16 billion tokens to over 600,000 addresses...