This company warns that XRP could fall until 2026 despite ETF - Here is the reason

While the altcoin market is gradually regaining momentum, XRP has been struggling within a narrow range of 2.7 to 3 USD for the past two weeks. The growth momentum of the world's third-largest cryptocurrency appears to be unconvincing, even as the market spreads excitement about the potential launch of ETF funds for altcoins in the near future.

However, according to a recent analysis by The Motley Fool, the current correction may last longer than expected, and XRP risks facing a sustainable downward trend before regaining upward momentum.

Pressure from the overall market and ETF may not create a boost

The Motley Fool believes that the reason XRP has stagnated recently is not only due to internal factors but also reflects the overall condition of the entire crypto market. Most investors are still in a waiting state, hoping that Bitcoin – the largest and most influential cryptocurrency – will initiate a new growth phase to lead the entire market. Until this happens, altcoins like XRP will find it very difficult to generate independent price momentum.

One of the biggest highlights in 2025 is the wave of applications for spot ETFs for XRP. The filings submitted to the (SEC) have caught the attention of investors, with Bloomberg estimating the likelihood of approval at 95%, while online market predictions also provide a similar rate at 94%. This is clearly a very high probability, indicating expectations for the emergence of a new financial product that could expand access to XRP for institutional investors.

However, The Motley Fool emphasizes that the real question is not about the likelihood of approval – which is almost certain – but rather the level of actual interest from investors. Market data shows that in the first 8 months of 2025, the total institutional capital flowing into XRP reached only about 1.25 billion USD. This figure is considered quite modest compared to the enormous market capitalization of XRP today, which has reached 180 billion USD. This indicates that, although there is some attention, the scale of actual capital flow is not enough to create significant impacts on price.

Even in the optimistic scenario that JPMorgan Chase once predicted – that the upcoming XRP ETFs could attract between 4 to 8 billion USD in new capital – the long-term impact on the market may not be truly significant. With a cryptocurrency of large market capitalization like XRP, this additional capital flow, while substantial in the short term, may still not be strong enough to create a sustainable turning point.

The risk of prolonged price decline until 2026

Although many analysts have made optimistic forecasts, suggesting that the price of XRP could reach milestones of 4 USD, 5 USD, or even 10 USD in the future, The Motley Fool warns that these scenarios are still flawed as they do not take into account the potential short-term risks. In reality, given the highly volatile cryptocurrency market and the investors' sentiment not being truly stable, the expectation that XRP will quickly reach new highs may be an overly hasty assessment.

According to statistics from Polymarket, many investors still lean towards the possibility of XRP continuing to decline rather than breaking out soon. Specifically, there is a 32% chance that the price of XRP will fall to 2.5 USD within this year. This is seen as a relatively strong decline, reflecting the market's concern that XRP will struggle to maintain the current support zone.

Source: PolymarketNot stopping there, the market also records a 30% chance that XRP will continue to drop to 2.4 USD, indicating that investors are considering a scenario of a deeper correction. Most notably, there remains a 27% chance that XRP could plummet to just 2 USD, a price level that could trigger a wave of selling if it occurs in reality.

These numbers indicate that market sentiment remains cautious and somewhat pessimistic regarding the short-term outlook for XRP. Even though many promising price forecasts have been made, the downside risks are still present and hard to ignore.

From a long-term perspective, this means that a sustainable and meaningful recovery of XRP may not occur immediately in the 2025 period. Instead, many experts believe that the year 2026 is a more hopeful milestone, when the market may regain stability, macroeconomic factors improve, and institutional capital flows back more strongly into the cryptocurrency market in general and XRP in particular.

The future of XRP depends on Bitcoin

According to the analysis, the price trajectory of XRP is almost directly dependent on the performance of Bitcoin – the leading cryptocurrency in the market. Over the years, most altcoins, including XRP, have tended to move in line with Bitcoin's footsteps. This means that if BTC cannot soon regain its previous peak and establish a clear growth trend, then XRP will struggle to open up a separate bullish cycle on its own. In other words, the sustainable strength of XRP in the long term is difficult to separate from the overall "heartbeat" of the market controlled by Bitcoin.

Technically, the current indicators show that XRP is still in a price accumulation phase, reflecting the caution of both buyers and sellers. On the daily chart, the narrow range of fluctuations indicates that the cash flow has not really broken out yet, and a wait-and-see mentality is prevailing. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around 3.0675 USD, recording an increase of 1.5% in the last 24 hours. However, this increase is still quite modest compared to the performance of Ethereum, which has surged about 5% during the same period.

This difference once again emphasizes that until Bitcoin initiates a strong upward trend, XRP is likely to continue to maintain a sideways state, accumulating and relying heavily on the movements of the largest cryptocurrency in the market.

Taylor