Bitcoin Valuation Indicator Hints at Macro Top as ‘Death Cross’ Appears

Bitcoin’s market signals are flashing warnings of a potential cycle peak as its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio turns bearish. While some analysts point to similarities with previous major tops, others argue that the current rally is far from overheated.

MVRV Death Cross Raises Red Flags

According to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio recently formed a “death cross,” with the 30-day moving average crossing below the 365-day moving average. This shift signals weakening momentum and has historically preceded sharp downturns.

The last time the indicator produced this bearish crossover was in late 2021, just before Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,500 during the prolonged bear market. Analysts warn that the current signal could point to another macro reversal, suggesting price targets as low as $105,000 in the short term—or even $60,000 if bearish pressure accelerates.

Momentum Weakens Despite Price Gains

Bitcoin has climbed 13% since January, briefly touching an all-time high of $124,500 in August. Yet the MVRV ratio has steadily declined, hinting at reduced capital inflows and weakening market strength. “History doesn’t repeat, it rhymes — and the signals from MVRV deserve attention,” Yonsei_dent noted.

Other analysts echoed the warning. Ali Martinez described the death cross as a clear momentum reversal, cautioning that it may trigger a prolonged downtrend if history follows its usual pattern.

Z-Score Counters Bearish Outlook

Despite the bearish crossover, not all indicators align with a top scenario. Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, which compares market value against realized value, remains far below levels historically associated with overheated conditions.

In previous cycles, the Z-Score surged above 7 or even 9 before major crashes, marking points where investors were sitting on massive profits. Currently, the metric sits near 2—well below danger territory. This suggests that while momentum has cooled, the broader market is not yet overextended.

Room to Run Before a True Peak

Market watchers note that all 30 CoinGlass bull market peak indicators remain stable, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s rally is not exhausted. Analysts argue that the cryptocurrency may still have room to climb, with some projecting bullish targets as high as $260,000 if the current trend continues.

While the MVRV death cross casts a shadow over short-term momentum, the lack of overheating in broader on-chain metrics points to the possibility of further growth before a definitive cycle top emerges.