Tron is "extremely greedy" - Is TRX ready to break through to 1.25 USD?

Tron (TRX) is entering a critical phase of its price cycle, as both on-chain signals and market sentiment indicate that this cryptocurrency is facing both explosive opportunities and the risk of a deep correction.

According to data from CryptoQuant, TRX is currently in a difficult state, mimicking the conditions often seen before major corrections. The token price is fluctuating below the historical peak (ATH) – a crucial boundary that could pave the way for a journey into new price exploration, or become a resistance ceiling leading to a strong wave of sell-offs.

The Decisive Moment

The sentiment indicator is showing an "Extreme Greed" state. This is a signal reflecting the extreme excitement of the market, as the majority of traders believe that TRX will break through its ATH. However, experience from previous cycles shows that these overly optimistic periods often carry significant risks. If the growth rate slows down, the selling pressure from investors wanting to "realize profits" can quickly trigger a strong correction.

Another concerning indicator lies in the widening gap between the market price and the realized price (. This is a measure that reflects the average capital cost that investors in the network have incurred. When this gap widens, it means that a large number of holders are in a state of unrealized profit. Market history has repeatedly shown: when unrealized profits are too high, the profit-taking sentiment tends to surge strongly, leading to widespread selling pressure.

Currently, TRX is moving close to the Top Value Band ) – an area often regarded as the "overbought zone" in on-chain analysis. When the price approaches this area, the risks increase significantly, as it implies the market is trading at a level that is substantially higher than the intrinsic average value. CryptoQuant notes: the combination of extreme sentiment, stretched valuations, and prices nearing ATH is creating a fragile market structure – significant growth potential, but also carries a high risk of correction.

In a positive scenario, if TRX breaks through this resistance, the upward momentum could be strongly supported, opening up a new growth phase. Conversely, if selling pressure prevails, the market may witness a deep correction.

CryptoQuant recommends:

"Traders should be cautious. It is advisable to use a trailing stop ( to secure profits, while also considering taking partial profits at the current price level. Opening new positions during periods of excitement carries high risks."

The next stop for TRX

At the current time, Tron )TRX( is trading around 0.33 USD, which is approximately 21.2% lower than the ATH of 0.43 USD set at the end of 2024. This is a sensitive price range that often serves as a "hinge point" where the market must choose between continuing the upward trend to explore new price levels or reversing to adjust in order to rebalance supply and demand.

Although the overall crypto market is experiencing a period of strong volatility, TRX still shows the ability to maintain an upward trend. In particular, the retest of the previous ATH without being broken is seen as a positive technical signal. In historical market analysis, many coins that successfully retest old highs often open up a cycle of sustainable growth due to reinforced investor sentiment.

) Detailed technical analysis

• Major resistance ( 0.35 – 0.36 USD ): This is the most important "battleground" in the short term. If TRX breaks through this area with sufficiently strong trading volume, the market could trigger a new buying wave, pushing prices to higher levels.
• Important support ###0.3 – 0.31 USD(: This area acts as a "defensive zone" for the current uptrend. If breached, TRX is likely to enter a longer accumulation phase instead of continuing to rise immediately.
• Momentum indicator: RSI is approaching the overbought zone, reflecting an optimistic sentiment but also warning of the risk of correction. Meanwhile, trading volume remains high, indicating that the flow of funds has not left TRX and is still ready to support the price when declines occur.

One notable point is the strength of the inflow of funds into TRX. Even during the recent market corrections, buying pressure has remained stable during the dips. This indicates that investors tend to view TRX as a "hold" option rather than retreating, thereby increasing the probability of a breakout when favorable conditions arise.

) Potential price target

• Short-term (0.65 USD): If it surpasses the resistance of 0.35 - 0.36 USD, TRX may head towards the area of 0.65 USD. This price level coincides with the extended Fibonacci levels and is also consistent with the common breakout patterns observed in the market.
• Long-term ###1.25 USD(: In a more optimistic scenario, if the upward trend continues to be maintained and supported by new capital inflows, TRX could reach the level of 1.25 USD. This price level is not only nearly 4 times the current one, but it could also mark the beginning of a large-scale growth cycle in the Tron ecosystem.

) Trading risks and strategies

However, TRX is also facing a significant challenge: the profit-taking mentality as the gap between the current price and the Realized Price widens. This often motivates early investors in the market to realize profits, putting downward pressure on prices.

In the context of a market dominated by excitement, the most reasonable strategy is:

• Maintain trading discipline.
• Apply strict risk management (stop-loss, trailing stop).
• Avoid opening new positions when market sentiment has shifted significantly towards "extreme greed".

In summary, Tron ###TRX( is at an important crossroads. A successful breakout could open the journey to explore new price levels and lay the foundation for a strong growth cycle. Conversely, failure at the resistance level would lead to a correction, becoming a true test of the trend's endurance and the investment community's confidence in this cryptocurrency.

Emma