Double unfavourable information attack! XRP strategic reserves dream shattered, SEC closed-door meeting remains undecided; Fed's hawkish stance suppresses BTC, spot ETF inflows struggle against macro pressures.

On July 30, XRP fell by 1.05% due to the lack of endorsement from the U.S. digital asset working group for its strategic reserves. The closed-door vote on the SEC's appeal against the Ripple case has been delayed again, prolonging the stalemate in the case. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell downplayed expectations for a rate cut in September, leading BTC to be under pressure and fall by 0.12%. Despite the U.S. BTC Spot ETF seeing a net inflow for four consecutive days (with a single-day inflow of +$80 million), it is still difficult to resist the market sell pressure brought by macro policy uncertainty.

XRP core catalyst falls short, SEC closed-door meeting becomes new focus On July 30, the price of XRP fell 1.05% to $3.0968, underperforming the market (the total crypto market cap slightly fell by 0.31% to $3.81 trillion). The direct trigger was the first report from the U.S. President's Digital Asset Working Group ( PWG ) which did not categorize XRP as a U.S. strategic reserve asset, rendering one of the two major price catalysts this week ineffective.

Investor attention quickly turns to SEC developments:

• The Appeal Stalemate Continues: It has been over five weeks since Judge Analisa Torres dismissed the joint indicative ruling motion regarding the settlement terms between Ripple and the SEC. Although Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal the next day, signaling a release for the settlement, the SEC has yet to clarify whether it will abandon its appeal against the XRP programmatic sales ruling.
• Closed Door Meeting Suspense: The SEC is set to hold a closed-door meeting on July 31, where commissioners may vote on whether to abandon the appeal. The previous settlement proposal included a fine reduced to $50 million, lifting the institutional sales ban, and other terms favorable to XRP. The legal community generally believes that the probability of passing the vote is high, but a delayed resolution will slow down the approval process for the XRP Spot ETF, inhibiting the price recovery.

The long and short game of XRP intensifies, with the key resistance level of $3.2 becoming a wind vane XRP short-term trend depends on multiple catalysts:

• SEC Appeal Voting Results
• XRP Spot ETF progress
• XRP application for banking license in the United States
• SWIFT cooperation dynamics
• Legislative Process of the CLARITY Act and the 21st Century Mortgage Act

Technical analysis shows:

• Upward Path: After breaking the resistance level of $3.2, it is expected to challenge the July 28 high of $3.3302, and then push towards $3.5, approaching the historical peak of $3.6606.

• Downside risk: If it falls below the psychological level of 3 dollars, it may test the support at 2.8 dollars.

  

Fed's hawkish stance suppresses BTC, September rate cut probability plunges BTC fell 0.12% to $117,788 on the same day, dipping to $115,760 during the session due to Powell's remarks. The core pressure comes from:

• Policy Shift Fails: The Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, and Powell clearly states "no decision on September rate cut", needing to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September plummeted from 64.6% to 46.5%.
• Conflicting Economic Data: Despite a 3% GDP growth in Q2 (previous value -0.5%) and 104,000 new private jobs in July according to ADP (previous value -23,000) showing resilience, Powell's "wait-and-see stance" has heightened market concerns. AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver pointed out: "A rate cut in September is still possible, but expectations of two cuts this year have been thwarted."

BTC Spot ETF inflows hit record high, hard to resist macro headwinds The US BTC Spot ETF has become an important buffer:

• On July 30, a net inflow of 80 million USD was achieved, marking four consecutive days of net capital inflow.
• The cumulative net inflow in July reached 6.0803 billion USD, far exceeding June's 4.5787 billion USD.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) raised 12.7 million USD in a single day (BlackRock data to be updated).

BTC long and short tug-of-war, inflation data and bill progress are key The short-term direction of BTC depends on:

• US PCE Inflation Report
• Fed officials' speech tone
• Advancement of the CLARITY Act Legislation
• Spot ETF Fund Flow

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: The bill faces obstacles, inflation heats up, hawkish Fed comments combined with ETF outflows may lead BTC to test $115,000 and the 50-day EMA (.

• Bullish Scenario: The "CLARITY Act" receives bipartisan support, inflation cools, dovish signals resonate with ETF inflows, and BTC is expected to challenge the historical high of $122,055.

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Conclusion: XRP and BTC are simultaneously facing dual challenges from regulation and macroeconomic factors. XRP's breakthrough relies on the SEC's appeal decision and the approval of a Spot ETF to break the ice, while BTC's trend is tied to inflation data and signals of a shift in Fed policy. Although the continuous inflow of funds into the BTC Spot ETF provides support, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations cooling and the slow advancement of crypto regulation bills, short-term market volatility may intensify. Investors need to closely monitor the results of the SEC's closed-door meeting, core PCE inflation data, and legislative dynamics of the CLARITY Act, as these factors will determine whether the two major assets can break out of the current consolidation pattern.