The US encryption legislation encounters obstacles, XRP's seven consecutive rises come to an end, Bitcoin pulls back to $117,000.

The GENIUS bill was rejected, and XRP's seven consecutive rises have been halted

On July 15, the U.S. House of Representatives voted down the highly anticipated "GENIUS Act," undermining market confidence in the clarification of legislation for the cryptocurrency industry, resulting in the end of XRP's seven-day rise, with a single-day decline of 1.33%, closing at $2.9198.

Financial journalist Eleanor Terrett pointed out in the CryptoAmerica program that some lawmakers are concerned that the bill may indirectly support central bank digital currencies (CBDC), although the bill text explicitly prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail CBDCs.

Caitlin Long, the founder of Custodia Bank, downplayed the impact of this vote, stating: "In the Senate, the first procedural vote on the GENIUS bill also failed, and it passed 11 days later."

This week will also see votes on the "CLARITY Act" and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act", which is referred to as "Crypto Week" in the industry.

SEC approves ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, market期待现货产品推进

Although the legislative efforts have failed, there is good news for the XRP ETF. On July 15, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, boosting the demand for XRP. This ETF is issued by NYSE Arca and aims to track twice the daily price fluctuations of the Bloomberg XRP Index, using XRP futures contracts for investment.

Although the ETF does not directly hold XRP assets, the market sees this as an important step towards a spot XRP ETF.

Grayscale's GDLC fund plans to convert into a spot cryptocurrency ETF and is currently awaiting formal approval from the SEC. This fund covers BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP assets, and once launched, it will become an important milestone for multi-asset cryptocurrency ETFs.

XRP Price Key Points: Looking up to $3.55, beware of a deep drop below $2.8

From a technical perspective, if XRP can break through the high point of $3.0345 on July 14, it may challenge the 2025 high of $3.3999, or even retest the historical high of $3.5505 from 2018.

If it falls below $2.80, it may test the July 11 low of $2.5137.

Bitcoin price correction, influenced by CPI and legislative resistance

As XRP ends its consecutive rise, Bitcoin (BTC) has also retreated from its historical high of $122,057, falling 1.7% on July 15 to close at $117,682.

Latest data shows that the U.S. June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year (previous value 2.4%), and the core CPI rose to 2.9% (previous value 2.8%), raising market doubts about the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut has been adjusted down from 62.6% to 54.9%.

Despite rising macro pressures, ETF fund flows continue to support Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin spot ETF market in the US may see a net inflow for the ninth consecutive day

On July 14th, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the US reached $297 million, totaling $3.68 billion in July. According to data from Farside Investors:

• VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) net inflow of $19 million
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) net inflow of $18.6 million
• GBTC net outflow of 41.2 million USD
• Fidelity (FBTC) net outflow of 22.9 million USD

If iShares and BTCO data confirm positive inflows, the US ETF market is expected to attract funds for the ninth consecutive day.

Santiment commented: "Since June 9, the ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of $7.78 billion, averaging over $350 million per day, with whales continuously accumulating coins, driving BTC to new historical highs."

BTC Price Outlook: Key Factors Influencing Short-Term Direction

The short-term support level for BTC is around $115,000. If the policies continue to be unfavorable, PPI rises, or ETF outflows occur, it may test the 50-day EMA support. Conversely, if the legislation passes, PPI declines, and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin is expected to return to and break through the historical high of $122,057.

Four key factors that investors should focus on:

1. Ripple lawsuit progress: Will the SEC withdraw the appeal?
2. Cryptocurrency Legislation Voting: GENIUS, CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Bills
3. US Inflation and Interest Rate Policy: CPI/PPI Data and Federal Reserve Position
4. ETF Fund Flow Trends: The dynamics of BTC and XRP spot ETFs will influence medium-term supply and demand.